Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames
Ottawa Senators 52% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Senators:
- Recent Form. Tampa Bay Lightning (38-17) in better form than New York Rangers (23-29)
- Offensive Efficiency. Tampa Bay Lightning offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces New York Rangers (2.6 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Tampa Bay Lightning defense (2.6 Opp PPG) better than New York Rangers (3.2 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OTT 55% (+3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: OTT 49% (−3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OTT 49% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OTT 50% (−2)
Win probability movement
CGY home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Senators defeated the Flames 4-1.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 52% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Flames and was a notable factor: New York Rangers are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Senators and was a contributing factor: Tampa Bay Lightning (38-17) in better form than New York Rangers (23-29)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Senators and was a contributing factor: Tampa Bay Lightning offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces New York Rangers (2.6 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Senators won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Calgary Flames
- Recent FormFavors Ottawa Senators
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Ottawa Senators
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Ottawa Senators
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Senators
Flames
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Flames has a 48% win probability, while Senators has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
Venue information is not yet available for this game.