Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Jets:
- Home Field Advantage. San Jose Sharks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WPG 50% (−3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: WPG 54% (+1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: WPG 54% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: WPG 53% (0)
Win probability movement
WPG home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Jets defeated the Canucks 3-2.
Our model predicted the Jets would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Jets and was a contributing factor: San Jose Sharks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Canucks and was a contributing factor: Edmonton Oilers offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces San Jose Sharks (3.1 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (3.5 vs 3.3 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Jets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Winnipeg Jets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Vancouver Canucks
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Canucks
Jets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jets has a 53% win probability, while Canucks has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, MB.