NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-04-06 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 73% across 52 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 80% — final SAC 124–GSW 118
- Defensive Efficiency (favors GSW)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors GSW)
- Recent Form (favors GSW)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clippers at Kings Mon, Apr 6 | SAC 21% • LAC 79% | SAC 109–LAC 138 | Hit |
| Rockets at Warriors Mon, Apr 6 | GSW 39% • HOU 61% | GSW 116–HOU 117 | Hit |
| Knicks at Hawks Mon, Apr 6 | ATL 34% • NYK 66% | ATL 105–NYK 108 | Hit |
| Pistons at Magic Mon, Apr 6 | ORL 27% • DET 73% | ORL 123–DET 107 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Grizzlies Tue, Apr 7 | MEM 25% • CLE 75% | MEM 126–CLE 142 | Hit |
| 76ers at Spurs Tue, Apr 7 | SAS 83% • PHI 17% | SAS 115–PHI 102 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Nuggets Tue, Apr 7 | DEN 79% • POR 21% | DEN 137–POR 132 | Hit |
| Bulls at Wizards Tue, Apr 7 | WSH 56% • CHI 44% | WSH 98–CHI 129 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Pacers Tue, Apr 7 | IND 13% • MIN 87% | IND 104–MIN 124 | Hit |
| Bucks at Nets Tue, Apr 7 | BKN 38% • MIL 62% | BKN 96–MIL 90 | Miss |
| Heat at Raptors Tue, Apr 7 | TOR 53% • MIA 47% | TOR 121–MIA 95 | Hit |
| Jazz at Pelicans Wed, Apr 8 | NOP 72% • UTA 28% | NOP 156–UTA 137 | Hit |
| Hornets at Celtics Wed, Apr 8 | BOS 71% • CHA 29% | BOS 113–CHA 102 | Hit |
| Kings at Warriors Wed, Apr 8 | GSW 88% • SAC 12% | GSW 110–SAC 105 | Hit |
| Thunder at Lakers Wed, Apr 8 | LAL 24% • OKC 76% | LAL 87–OKC 123 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Clippers Wed, Apr 8 | LAC 77% • DAL 23% | LAC 116–DAL 103 | Hit |
| Rockets at Suns Wed, Apr 8 | PHX 44% • HOU 56% | PHX 105–HOU 119 | Hit |
| Bucks at Pistons Wed, Apr 8 | DET 90% • MIL 10% | DET 137–MIL 111 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Magic Wed, Apr 8 | ORL 47% • MIN 53% | ORL 132–MIN 120 | Miss |
| Hawks at Cavaliers Wed, Apr 8 | CLE 67% • ATL 33% | CLE 122–ATL 116 | Hit |
| Grizzlies at Nuggets Thu, Apr 9 | DEN 83% • MEM 17% | DEN 136–MEM 119 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Spurs Thu, Apr 9 | SAS 87% • POR 13% | SAS 112–POR 101 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Suns Thu, Apr 9 | PHX 77% • DAL 23% | PHX 112–DAL 107 | Hit |
| Thunder at Clippers Thu, Apr 9 | LAC 16% • OKC 84% | LAC 110–OKC 128 | Hit |
| Bulls at Wizards Thu, Apr 9 | WSH 56% • CHI 44% | WSH 108–CHI 119 | Miss |
| Heat at Raptors Thu, Apr 9 | TOR 53% • MIA 47% | TOR 128–MIA 114 | Hit |
| Pacers at Nets Thu, Apr 9 | BKN 56% • IND 44% | BKN 94–IND 123 | Miss |
| Celtics at Knicks Thu, Apr 9 | NYK 54% • BOS 46% | NYK 112–BOS 106 | Hit |
| 76ers at Rockets Fri, Apr 10 | HOU 70% • PHI 30% | HOU 113–PHI 102 | Hit |
| Lakers at Warriors Fri, Apr 10 | GSW 50% • LAL 50% | GSW 103–LAL 119 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Hawks Fri, Apr 10 | ATL 42% • CLE 58% | ATL 124–CLE 102 | Miss |
| Pistons at Hornets Fri, Apr 10 | CHA 38% • DET 62% | CHA 100–DET 118 | Hit |
| Heat at Wizards Fri, Apr 10 | WSH 56% • MIA 44% | WSH 117–MIA 140 | Miss |
| Pelicans at Celtics Fri, Apr 10 | BOS 77% • NOP 23% | BOS 144–NOP 118 | Hit |
| 76ers at Pacers Fri, Apr 10 | IND 25% • PHI 75% | IND 94–PHI 105 | Hit |
| Raptors at Knicks Fri, Apr 10 | NYK 73% • TOR 27% | NYK 112–TOR 95 | Hit |
| Magic at Bulls Sat, Apr 11 | CHI 31% • ORL 69% | CHI 103–ORL 127 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Spurs Sat, Apr 11 | SAS 90% • DAL 10% | SAS 139–DAL 120 | Hit |
| Nets at Bucks Sat, Apr 11 | MIL 74% • BKN 26% | MIL 125–BKN 108 | Hit |
| Thunder at Nuggets Sat, Apr 11 | DEN 39% • OKC 61% | DEN 127–OKC 107 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Rockets Sat, Apr 11 | HOU 55% • MIN 45% | HOU 132–MIN 136 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at Jazz Sat, Apr 11 | UTA 39% • MEM 61% | UTA 147–MEM 101 | Miss |
| Clippers at Trail Blazers Sat, Apr 11 | POR 47% • LAC 53% | POR 116–LAC 97 | Miss |
| Warriors at Kings Sat, Apr 11 | SAC 20% • GSW 80% | SAC 124–GSW 118 | Miss |
| Suns at Lakers Sat, Apr 11 | LAL 57% • PHX 43% | LAL 101–PHX 73 | Hit |
| Bucks at 76ers Sun, Apr 12 | PHI 75% • MIL 25% | PHI 126–MIL 106 | Hit |
| Hornets at Knicks Sun, Apr 12 | NYK 67% • CHA 33% | NYK 96–CHA 110 | Miss |
| Hawks at Heat Sun, Apr 12 | MIA 63% • ATL 37% | MIA 143–ATL 117 | Hit |
| Nets at Raptors Sun, Apr 12 | TOR 87% • BKN 13% | TOR 136–BKN 101 | Hit |
| Magic at Celtics Sun, Apr 12 | BOS 76% • ORL 24% | BOS 113–ORL 108 | Hit |
| Pistons at Pacers Sun, Apr 12 | IND 11% • DET 89% | IND 121–DET 133 | Hit |
| Wizards at Cavaliers Sun, Apr 12 | CLE 56% • WSH 44% | CLE 130–WSH 117 | Hit |