MLB report card: week of 2026-05-11 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
52.2%
hit rate
0.250
Brier score
48 of 92 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Dodgers at AngelsLAA 63.5% pre-game — final LAA 0–LAD 6
- Phillies at PiratesPIT 61.7% pre-game — final PIT 9–PHI 11
- Orioles at NationalsWSH 57.9% pre-game — final WSH 3–BAL 7
- Reds at GuardiansCLE 56.8% pre-game — final CLE 6–CIN 7
- Phillies at PiratesPIT 55.9% pre-game — final PIT 0–PHI 6
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Giants at AthleticsOAK 61.7% pre-game — final OAK 5–SF 2
- Orioles at NationalsWSH 57.9% pre-game — final WSH 13–BAL 3
- Marlins at RaysTB 56.8% pre-game — final TB 7–MIA 2
- Tigers at MetsNYM 56.8% pre-game — final NYM 10–DET 2
- Diamondbacks at RockiesCOL 55.8% pre-game — final COL 4–ARI 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angels at Guardians Mon, May 11 | CLE 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CLE 7–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Orioles Mon, May 11 | BAL 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | BAL 3–NYY 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Blue Jays Mon, May 11 | TOR 54.9% · TB 45.1% | TOR 5–TB 8 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Rangers Tue, May 12 | TEX 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | TEX 0–ARI 1 | Miss |
| Mariners at Astros Tue, May 12 | HOU 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | HOU 1–SEA 3 | Miss |
| Giants at Dodgers Tue, May 12 | LAD 54.9% · SF 45.1% | LAD 3–SF 9 | Miss |
| Angels at Guardians Tue, May 12 | CLE 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CLE 3–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Orioles Tue, May 12 | BAL 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | BAL 2–NYY 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Reds Tue, May 12 | CIN 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | CIN 4–WSH 10 | Miss |
| Rockies at Pirates Tue, May 12 | PIT 54.9% · COL 45.1% | PIT 3–COL 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Red Sox Tue, May 12 | BOS 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | BOS 1–PHI 2 | Miss |
| Rays at Blue Jays Tue, May 12 | TOR 54.9% · TB 45.1% | TOR 6–TB 7 | Miss |
| Tigers at Mets Tue, May 12 | NYM 56.8% · DET 43.2% | NYM 10–DET 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Braves Tue, May 12 | ATL 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | ATL 5–CHC 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Brewers Tue, May 12 | MIL 54.9% · SD 45.1% | MIL 6–SD 4 | Hit |
| Royals at Chicago White Sox Tue, May 12 | CWS 54.9% · KC 45.1% | CWS 6–KC 5 | Hit |
| Marlins at Twins Tue, May 12 | MIN 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | MIN 3–MIA 0 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Rangers Wed, May 13 | TEX 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | TEX 7–ARI 4 | Hit |
| Mariners at Astros Wed, May 13 | HOU 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | HOU 2–SEA 10 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Athletics Wed, May 13 | OAK 54.9% · STL 45.1% | OAK 4–STL 6 | Miss |
| Giants at Dodgers Wed, May 13 | LAD 54.9% · SF 45.1% | LAD 2–SF 6 | Miss |
| Yankees at Orioles Wed, May 13 | BAL 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | BAL 7–NYY 0 | Hit |
| Angels at Guardians Wed, May 13 | CLE 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CLE 4–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Reds Wed, May 13 | CIN 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | CIN 7–WSH 8 | Miss |
| Rockies at Pirates Wed, May 13 | PIT 54.9% · COL 45.1% | PIT 4–COL 10 | Miss |
| Phillies at Red Sox Wed, May 13 | BOS 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | BOS 3–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Rays at Blue Jays Wed, May 13 | TOR 54.9% · TB 45.1% | TOR 5–TB 3 | Hit |
| Tigers at Mets Wed, May 13 | NYM 54.9% · DET 45.1% | NYM 3–DET 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Braves Wed, May 13 | ATL 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | ATL 4–CHC 1 | Hit |
| Marlins at Twins Wed, May 13 | MIN 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | MIN 5–MIA 9 | Miss |
| Padres at Brewers Wed, May 13 | MIL 54.9% · SD 45.1% | MIL 1–SD 3 | Miss |
| Royals at Chicago White Sox Wed, May 13 | CWS 54.9% · KC 45.1% | CWS 6–KC 5 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Rangers Thu, May 14 | TEX 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | TEX 6–ARI 5 | Hit |
| Mariners at Astros Thu, May 14 | HOU 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | HOU 4–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Athletics Thu, May 14 | OAK 54.9% · STL 45.1% | OAK 6–STL 2 | Hit |
| Giants at Dodgers Thu, May 14 | LAD 54.9% · SF 45.1% | LAD 4–SF 0 | Hit |
| Rockies at Pirates Thu, May 14 | PIT 54.9% · COL 45.1% | PIT 7–COL 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Reds Thu, May 14 | CIN 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | CIN 15–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Tigers at Mets Thu, May 14 | NYM 54.9% · DET 45.1% | NYM 9–DET 4 | Hit |
| Padres at Brewers Thu, May 14 | MIL 54.9% · SD 45.1% | MIL 7–SD 1 | Hit |
| Marlins at Twins Thu, May 14 | MIN 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | MIN 9–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Mariners at Astros Thu, May 14 | HOU 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | HOU 3–SEA 8 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Athletics Thu, May 14 | OAK 54.9% · STL 45.1% | OAK 4–STL 5 | Miss |
| Phillies at Red Sox Thu, May 14 | BOS 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | BOS 1–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Cubs at Braves Thu, May 14 | ATL 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | ATL 0–CHC 2 | Miss |
| Royals at Chicago White Sox Thu, May 14 | CWS 54.9% · KC 45.1% | CWS 6–KC 2 | Hit |
| Giants at Dodgers Fri, May 15 | LAD 54.9% · SF 45.1% | LAD 5–SF 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Pirates Fri, May 15 | PIT 61.7% · PHI 38.3% | PIT 9–PHI 11 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Tigers Fri, May 15 | DET 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | DET 3–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Nationals Fri, May 15 | WSH 52.9% · BAL 47.1% | WSH 3–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Reds at Guardians Fri, May 15 | CLE 56.8% · CIN 43.2% | CLE 6–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Brewers at Twins Fri, May 15 | MIN 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | MIN 2–MIL 3 | Miss |
| Marlins at Rays Fri, May 15 | TB 56.8% · MIA 43.2% | TB 7–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Braves Fri, May 15 | ATL 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | ATL 3–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Mets Fri, May 15 | NYM 52.9% · NYY 47.1% | NYM 2–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Cubs at Chicago White Sox Fri, May 15 | CWS 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | CWS 5–CHC 10 | Miss |
| Rangers at Astros Sat, May 16 | HOU 52.9% · TEX 47.1% | HOU 2–TEX 0 | Hit |
| Royals at Cardinals Sat, May 16 | STL 54.9% · KC 45.1% | STL 5–KC 4 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Rockies Sat, May 16 | COL 52.9% · ARI 47.1% | COL 1–ARI 9 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Angels Sat, May 16 | LAA 63.5% · LAD 36.5% | LAA 0–LAD 6 | Miss |
| Padres at Mariners Sat, May 16 | SEA 54.9% · SD 45.1% | SEA 0–SD 2 | Miss |
| Giants at Athletics Sat, May 16 | OAK 61.7% · SF 38.3% | OAK 5–SF 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Tigers Sat, May 16 | DET 53.0% · TOR 47.0% | DET 1–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Royals at Cardinals Sat, May 16 | STL 54.5% · KC 45.5% | STL 4–KC 2 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Rockies Sat, May 16 | COL 55.8% · ARI 44.2% | COL 4–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Pirates Sat, May 16 | PIT 55.9% · PHI 44.1% | PIT 0–PHI 6 | Miss |
| Orioles at Nationals Sat, May 16 | WSH 57.9% · BAL 42.1% | WSH 13–BAL 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Rays Sat, May 16 | TB 55.2% · MIA 44.8% | TB 5–MIA 10 | Miss |
| Reds at Guardians Sat, May 16 | CLE 55.6% · CIN 44.4% | CLE 7–CIN 4 | Hit |
| Cubs at Chicago White Sox Sat, May 16 | CWS 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | CWS 8–CHC 3 | Hit |
| Brewers at Twins Sat, May 16 | MIN 53.4% · MIL 46.6% | MIN 1–MIL 2 | Miss |
| Rangers at Astros Sat, May 16 | HOU 54.5% · TEX 45.5% | HOU 4–TEX 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Mets Sat, May 16 | NYM 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | NYM 6–NYY 3 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Braves Sat, May 16 | ATL 55.7% · BOS 44.3% | ATL 2–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Padres at Mariners Sat, May 16 | SEA 52.5% · SD 47.5% | SEA 4–SD 7 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Angels Sun, May 17 | LAA 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | LAA 2–LAD 15 | Miss |
| Giants at Athletics Sun, May 17 | OAK 53.9% · SF 46.1% | OAK 4–SF 6 | Miss |
| Marlins at Rays Sun, May 17 | TB 55.2% · MIA 44.8% | TB 6–MIA 3 | Hit |
| Phillies at Pirates Sun, May 17 | PIT 55.9% · PHI 44.1% | PIT 0–PHI 6 | Miss |
| Orioles at Nationals Sun, May 17 | WSH 57.9% · BAL 42.1% | WSH 3–BAL 7 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Braves Sun, May 17 | ATL 55.7% · BOS 44.3% | ATL 8–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Guardians Sun, May 17 | CLE 55.6% · CIN 44.4% | CLE 10–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Tigers Sun, May 17 | DET 53.0% · TOR 47.0% | DET 1–TOR 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Mets Sun, May 17 | NYM 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | NYM 7–NYY 6 | Hit |
| Brewers at Twins Sun, May 17 | MIN 53.4% · MIL 46.6% | MIN 5–MIL 4 | Hit |
| Cubs at Chicago White Sox Sun, May 17 | CWS 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | CWS 9–CHC 8 | Hit |
| Rangers at Astros Sun, May 17 | HOU 54.5% · TEX 45.5% | HOU 0–TEX 8 | Miss |
| Royals at Cardinals Sun, May 17 | STL 54.5% · KC 45.5% | STL 0–KC 2 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Rockies Sun, May 17 | COL 55.8% · ARI 44.2% | COL 6–ARI 8 | Miss |
| Giants at Athletics Sun, May 17 | OAK 53.9% · SF 46.1% | OAK 1–SF 10 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Angels Sun, May 17 | LAA 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | LAA 1–LAD 10 | Miss |
| Padres at Mariners Sun, May 17 | SEA 52.5% · SD 47.5% | SEA 3–SD 8 | Miss |
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