Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Guardians:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Guardians rest advantage (2 days rest) over Reds (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 54% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: CLE 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
CLE home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Reds defeated the Guardians 7-6.
Our model predicted the Guardians would win with 57% confidence, but the Reds won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Guardians and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Guardians and was a contributing factor: Guardians rest advantage (2 days rest) over Reds (1 day rest)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Reds won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Rest DaysFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Reds
Guardians
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Guardians has a 57% win probability, while Reds has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.