Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Nationals:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WSH 50% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: WSH 56% (+3)
Win probability movement
WSH home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nationals defeated the Orioles 3-2.
Our model predicted the Nationals would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Nationals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Orioles and was a contributing factor: Orioles rest advantage (2 days rest) over Nationals (1 day rest)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nationals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Nationals
- Rest DaysFavors Baltimore Orioles
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Orioles
Nationals
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nationals has a 53% win probability, while Orioles has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia.