NHL report card: week of 2026-03-16 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
49.1%
hit rate
0.255
Brier score
27 of 55 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Ducks at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 58.9% pre-game — final UTA 1–ANA 4
- Panthers at OilersEDM 58.1% pre-game — final EDM 0–FLA 4
- Predators at JetsWPG 56.5% pre-game — final WPG 3–NSH 4
- Golden Knights at StarsDAL 56.3% pre-game — final DAL 2–VGK 3
- Hurricanes at PenguinsPIT 56.3% pre-game — final PIT 1–CAR 5
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Jets at BruinsBOS 59.4% pre-game — final BOS 6–WPG 1
- Predators at OilersEDM 59.1% pre-game — final EDM 3–NSH 1
- Devils at CapitalsWSH 58.9% pre-game — final WSH 2–NJD 1
- Sharks at OilersEDM 58.2% pre-game — final EDM 5–SJS 3
- Maple Leafs at SenatorsOTT 58.0% pre-game — final OTT 5–TOR 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers at Kraken Mon, Mar 16 | SEA 56.3% · FLA 43.7% | SEA 6–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Predators at Oilers Mon, Mar 16 | EDM 59.1% · NSH 40.9% | EDM 3–NSH 1 | Hit |
| Bruins at Devils Mon, Mar 16 | NJD 53.2% · BOS 46.8% | NJD 4–BOS 3 | Hit |
| Kings at Rangers Mon, Mar 16 | NYR 56.3% · LAK 43.7% | NYR 1–LAK 4 | Miss |
| Flames at Red Wings Mon, Mar 16 | DET 56.3% · CGY 43.7% | DET 5–CGY 2 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Stars Tue, Mar 17 | DAL 56.3% · UTA 43.7% | DAL 3–UTA 6 | Miss |
| Penguins at Avalanche Tue, Mar 17 | COL 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | COL 2–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Islanders at Maple Leafs Tue, Mar 17 | TOR 53.0% · NYI 47.0% | TOR 1–NYI 3 | Miss |
| Bruins at Canadiens Tue, Mar 17 | MTL 55.3% · BOS 44.7% | MTL 3–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Blue Jackets Tue, Mar 17 | CBJ 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | CBJ 5–CAR 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Blackhawks Tue, Mar 17 | CHI 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | CHI 3–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Predators at Jets Wed, Mar 18 | WPG 56.5% · NSH 43.5% | WPG 3–NSH 4 | Miss |
| Sharks at Oilers Wed, Mar 18 | EDM 58.2% · SJS 41.8% | EDM 5–SJS 3 | Hit |
| Lightning at Kraken Wed, Mar 18 | SEA 56.3% · TBL 43.7% | SEA 2–TBL 6 | Miss |
| Panthers at Canucks Wed, Mar 18 | VAN 50.8% · FLA 49.2% | VAN 5–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Sabres at Golden Knights Wed, Mar 18 | VGK 56.3% · BUF 43.7% | VGK 0–BUF 2 | Miss |
| Devils at Rangers Wed, Mar 18 | NYR 56.3% · NJD 43.7% | NYR 3–NJD 6 | Miss |
| Penguins at Hurricanes Wed, Mar 18 | CAR 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | CAR 6–PIT 5 | Hit |
| Senators at Capitals Wed, Mar 18 | WSH 56.8% · OTT 43.2% | WSH 4–OTT 1 | Hit |
| Stars at Avalanche Thu, Mar 19 | COL 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | COL 1–DAL 2 | Miss |
| Blues at Flames Thu, Mar 19 | CGY 57.5% · STL 42.5% | CGY 2–STL 1 | Hit |
| Flyers at Ducks Thu, Mar 19 | ANA 56.3% · PHI 43.7% | ANA 2–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Rangers at Blue Jackets Thu, Mar 19 | CBJ 56.3% · NYR 43.7% | CBJ 6–NYR 3 | Hit |
| Islanders at Senators Thu, Mar 19 | OTT 55.6% · NYI 44.4% | OTT 3–NYI 2 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Red Wings Thu, Mar 19 | DET 56.3% · MTL 43.7% | DET 3–MTL 1 | Hit |
| Jets at Bruins Thu, Mar 19 | BOS 59.4% · WPG 40.6% | BOS 6–WPG 1 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Wild Thu, Mar 19 | MIN 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | MIN 1–CHI 2 | Miss |
| Kraken at Predators Fri, Mar 20 | NSH 56.3% · SEA 43.7% | NSH 3–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Panthers at Oilers Fri, Mar 20 | EDM 58.1% · FLA 41.9% | EDM 0–FLA 4 | Miss |
| Lightning at Canucks Fri, Mar 20 | VAN 44.4% · TBL 55.6% | VAN 2–TBL 6 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Golden Knights Fri, Mar 20 | VGK 54.3% · UTA 45.7% | VGK 0–UTA 4 | Miss |
| Sabres at Sharks Fri, Mar 20 | SJS 56.3% · BUF 43.7% | SJS 0–BUF 5 | Miss |
| Flyers at Kings Fri, Mar 20 | LAK 56.3% · PHI 43.7% | LAK 3–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Maple Leafs Fri, Mar 20 | TOR 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | TOR 3–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Devils at Capitals Fri, Mar 20 | WSH 58.9% · NJD 41.1% | WSH 2–NJD 1 | Hit |
| Avalanche at Blackhawks Sat, Mar 21 | CHI 56.3% · COL 43.7% | CHI 1–COL 4 | Miss |
| Panthers at Flames Sat, Mar 21 | CGY 54.6% · FLA 45.4% | CGY 4–FLA 1 | Hit |
| Ducks at Utah Hockey Club Sat, Mar 21 | UTA 58.9% · ANA 41.1% | UTA 1–ANA 4 | Miss |
| Jets at Penguins Sat, Mar 21 | PIT 56.3% · WPG 43.7% | PIT 5–WPG 4 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Predators Sat, Mar 21 | NSH 53.5% · VGK 46.5% | NSH 4–VGK 1 | Hit |
| Sabres at Kings Sat, Mar 21 | LAK 56.3% · BUF 43.7% | LAK 1–BUF 4 | Miss |
| Stars at Wild Sat, Mar 21 | MIN 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | MIN 2–DAL 1 | Hit |
| Flyers at Sharks Sat, Mar 21 | SJS 56.3% · PHI 43.7% | SJS 1–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Kraken at Blue Jackets Sat, Mar 21 | CBJ 56.3% · SEA 43.7% | CBJ 5–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Senators Sat, Mar 21 | OTT 58.0% · TOR 42.0% | OTT 5–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Islanders at Canadiens Sat, Mar 21 | MTL 56.5% · NYI 43.5% | MTL 7–NYI 3 | Hit |
| Blues at Canucks Sat, Mar 21 | VAN 53.7% · STL 46.3% | VAN 1–STL 3 | Miss |
| Bruins at Red Wings Sun, Mar 22 | DET 56.3% · BOS 43.7% | DET 2–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Lightning at Oilers Sun, Mar 22 | EDM 51.7% · TBL 48.3% | EDM 2–TBL 5 | Miss |
| Jets at Rangers Sun, Mar 22 | NYR 56.3% · WPG 43.7% | NYR 2–WPG 3 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Capitals Sun, Mar 22 | WSH 49.3% · COL 50.7% | WSH 2–COL 3 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Penguins Sun, Mar 22 | PIT 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | PIT 1–CAR 5 | Miss |
| Predators at Blackhawks Sun, Mar 22 | CHI 56.3% · NSH 43.7% | CHI 2–NSH 3 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Islanders Sun, Mar 22 | NYI 56.4% · CBJ 43.6% | NYI 1–CBJ 0 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Stars Sun, Mar 22 | DAL 56.3% · VGK 43.7% | DAL 2–VGK 3 | Miss |
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