St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver Canucks 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Canucks:
- Home Field Advantage. Canucks are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: VAN 50% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: VAN 55% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: VAN 54% (0)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: VAN 54% (0)
Win probability movement
VAN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Blues defeated the Canucks 3-1.
Our model predicted the Canucks would win with 54% confidence, but the Blues won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Canucks and was a notable factor: Canucks are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Blues and was a contributing factor: Blues defense (3.4 Opp PPG) better than Canucks (3.7 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Blues and was a contributing factor: Blues (24-29) in better form than Canucks (19-36)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Blues won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Vancouver Canucks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors St. Louis Blues
- Recent FormFavors St. Louis Blues
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Blues
Canucks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Canucks has a 54% win probability, while Blues has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC.