New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Canadiens:
- Home Field Advantage. Canadiens are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency. Canadiens offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Islanders (2.9 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MTL 52% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MTL 54% (−2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MTL 58% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MTL 56% (0)
Win probability movement
MTL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Canadiens defeated the Islanders 7-3.
Our model predicted the Canadiens would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Canadiens and was a notable factor: Canadiens are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Canadiens and was a contributing factor: Canadiens offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Islanders (2.9 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Islanders defense (2.8 Opp PPG) better than Canadiens (3.3 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Canadiens won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Islanders
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Islanders
Canadiens
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Canadiens has a 56% win probability, while Islanders has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC.