Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks
Tampa Bay Lightning 56% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:
- Recent Form. Lightning (38-18) in better form than Canucks (19-36)
- Defensive Efficiency. Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Canucks (3.7 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Lightning offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Canucks (2.6 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TBL 58% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TBL 50% (−6)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TBL 51% (−5)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TBL 51% (−5)
Win probability movement
VAN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Canucks 6-2.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Canucks and was a notable factor: Canucks are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning (38-18) in better form than Canucks (19-36)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Canucks (3.7 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Vancouver Canucks
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Lightning
Canucks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Canucks has a 44% win probability, while Lightning has a 56% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC.