Boston Bruins at New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Devils 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Devils:
- Home Field Advantage. Devils are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NJD 49% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NJD 55% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NJD 53% (0)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NJD 52% (−1)
Win probability movement
NJD home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Devils defeated the Bruins 4-3.
Our model predicted the Devils would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Devils and was a notable factor: Devils are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Bruins and was a contributing factor: Bruins offense (3.3 PPG) outpaces Devils (2.5 PPG)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar form: Devils (31-29) vs Bruins (34-22)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Devils won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New Jersey Devils
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Bruins
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Bruins
Devils
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Devils has a 53% win probability, while Bruins has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.