New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Maple Leafs:
- Home Field Advantage. Maple Leafs are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 49% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 55% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 54% (+1)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 52% (−1)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Islanders defeated the Maple Leafs 3-1.
Our model predicted the Maple Leafs would win with 53% confidence, but the Islanders won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a notable factor: Maple Leafs are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Islanders defense (2.8 Opp PPG) better than Maple Leafs (3.5 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Islanders (35-23) in better form than Maple Leafs (27-25)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Islanders won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Islanders
- Recent FormFavors New York Islanders
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Islanders
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 53% win probability, while Islanders has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.