Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals
Colorado Avalanche 51% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Capitals (31-25)
- Offensive Efficiency. Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Capitals (3.1 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Capitals (2.9 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 54% (+3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: COL 48% (−3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 48% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 49% (−2)
Win probability movement
WSH home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Avalanche defeated the Capitals 3-2.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 51% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Capitals and was a notable factor: Capitals are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Capitals (31-25)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Capitals (3.1 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Avalanche won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Capitals
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Avalanche
Capitals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Capitals has a 49% win probability, while Avalanche has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.