Florida Panthers at Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Flames:
- Home Field Advantage. Flames are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Flames defense (3.0 Opp PPG) better than Panthers (3.3 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CGY 50% (−5)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CGY 56% (+1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CGY 53% (−2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CGY 55% (0)
Win probability movement
CGY home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Flames defeated the Panthers 4-1.
Our model predicted the Flames would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Flames and was a notable factor: Flames are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Panthers and was a contributing factor: Panthers offense (3.0 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Flames and was a contributing factor: Flames defense (3.0 Opp PPG) better than Panthers (3.3 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Flames won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Calgary Flames
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Florida Panthers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Calgary Flames
- Recent FormFavors Florida Panthers
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Panthers
Flames
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Flames has a 55% win probability, while Panthers has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.