St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Flames:
- Home Field Advantage. Flames are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Flames defense (3.0 Opp PPG) better than Blues (3.4 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CGY 53% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CGY 55% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CGY 57% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CGY 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
CGY home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Flames defeated the Blues 2-1.
Our model predicted the Flames would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Flames and was a notable factor: Flames are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Flames and was a contributing factor: Flames defense (3.0 Opp PPG) better than Blues (3.4 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (2.4 vs 2.6 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Flames won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Calgary Flames
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Calgary Flames
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Blues
Flames
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Flames has a 57% win probability, while Blues has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.