Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators 58% to win. The biggest signal favoring Senators:
- Home Field Advantage. Senators are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OTT 54% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OTT 56% (−2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: OTT 56% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OTT 56% (−2)
Win probability movement
OTT home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Senators defeated the Maple Leafs 5-2.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Senators and was a contributing factor: Senators are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (3.2 vs 3.5 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar form: Senators (30-22) vs Maple Leafs (27-25)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Senators won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Ottawa Senators
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Senators
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Senators has a 58% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.