San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Oilers:
- Home Field Advantage. Oilers are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency. Oilers offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Sharks (3.1 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: EDM 53% (−5)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: EDM 56% (−2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: EDM 57% (−1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: EDM 57% (−1)
Win probability movement
EDM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Oilers defeated the Sharks 5-3.
Our model predicted the Oilers would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Oilers and was a notable factor: Oilers are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Oilers and was a contributing factor: Oilers offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Sharks (3.1 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (3.4 vs 3.5 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Oilers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Sharks
Oilers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Oilers has a 58% win probability, while Sharks has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.