Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals
Washington Capitals 57% to win. The biggest signal favoring Capitals:
- Home Field Advantage. Capitals are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WSH 52% (−5)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: WSH 55% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: WSH 56% (−1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: WSH 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
WSH home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Capitals defeated the Senators 4-1.
Our model predicted the Capitals would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Capitals and was a notable factor: Capitals are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (2.9 vs 3.2 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (3.1 vs 3.3 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Capitals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Capitals
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Senators
Capitals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Capitals has a 57% win probability, while Senators has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.