NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-03-02 (2025-26)

Hit rate this week: 64% across 22 games; season-to-date: 53%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.

Biggest upset

The model's favorite lost at 67% — final TOR 2–TBL 5

Game	Pre-game	Final	Result
Maple Leafs at Devils Thu, Mar 5	NJD 46% • TOR 54%	NJD 4–TOR 3	Miss
Islanders at Ducks Thu, Mar 5	ANA 57% • NYI 43%	ANA 5–NYI 1	Hit
Maple Leafs at Islanders Fri, Mar 6	NYI 47% • TOR 53%	NYI 6–TOR 2	Miss
Panthers at Blue Jackets Fri, Mar 6	CBJ 59% • FLA 41%	CBJ 4–FLA 2	Hit
Bruins at Predators Fri, Mar 6	NSH 56% • BOS 44%	NSH 6–BOS 3	Hit
Lightning at Jets Fri, Mar 6	WPG 57% • TBL 43%	WPG 4–TBL 1	Hit
Senators at Flames Fri, Mar 6	CGY 48% • OTT 52%	CGY 1–OTT 4	Hit
Islanders at Kings Fri, Mar 6	LAK 54% • NYI 46%	LAK 5–NYI 3	Hit
Canadiens at Ducks Sat, Mar 7	ANA 63% • MTL 37%	ANA 6–MTL 5	Hit
Blues at Sharks Sat, Mar 7	SJS 57% • STL 43%	SJS 2–STL 3	Miss
Capitals at Bruins Sat, Mar 7	BOS 62% • WSH 38%	BOS 3–WSH 1	Hit
Islanders at Devils Sat, Mar 7	NJD 56% • NYI 44%	NJD 6–NYI 3	Hit
Lightning at Maple Leafs Sun, Mar 8	TOR 67% • TBL 33%	TOR 2–TBL 5	Miss
Utah Hockey Club at Blue Jackets Sun, Mar 8	CBJ 54% • UTA 46%	CBJ 4–UTA 5	Miss
Canadiens at Kings Sun, Mar 8	LAK 59% • MTL 41%	LAK 3–MTL 4	Miss
Canucks at Jets Sun, Mar 8	WPG 53% • VAN 47%	WPG 3–VAN 2	Hit
Islanders at Sharks Sun, Mar 8	SJS 52% • NYI 48%	SJS 1–NYI 2	Miss
Wild at Red Wings Sun, Mar 8	DET 56% • MIN 44%	DET 3–MIN 2	Hit
Devils at Blackhawks Sun, Mar 8	CHI 56% • NJD 44%	CHI 5–NJD 4	Hit
Flames at Islanders Sun, Mar 8	NYI 61% • CGY 39%	NYI 8–CGY 7	Hit
Flyers at Senators Sun, Mar 8	OTT 56% • PHI 44%	OTT 4–PHI 3	Hit
Penguins at Devils Sun, Mar 8	NJD 56% • PIT 44%	NJD 0–PIT 3	Miss