MLBNational League • NL West

San Diego Padres

National League Conference • NL West Division

Record

82-69

Division

NL West

Conference

National League

Upcoming

2 games

Next Game Prediction

vs Milwaukee Brewers • Thu, Oct 8 2:00 AM

52%

win probability

Full analysis →

Model accuracy on San Diego Padres: 67% (145 games)

Team Analytics

Elo Rating History

San Diego Padres - 2026 Season

156515291493

Current Elo

1559

Season Change

+52

Season High

1559

Season Low

1499

Avg Change

+1.6

Games

Model vs. Market History

San Diego Padres - 2026 Season

Avg Edge

+6%

Model Edge Record

4-7

Model Edge Win %

36%

Date	Opponent	H/A	Model	Market	Edge	Result
Oct 9	Brewers	A	28%	-	-	Scheduled
Oct 8	Brewers	H	52%	51%	+1%	Scheduled
Oct 7	Brewers	H	51%	56%	-5%	WIN✓
Oct 4	Brewers	A	41%	60%	-19%	LOSS✓
Oct 4	Brewers	A	42%	35%	+8%★	LOSS✓
Oct 2	Cubs	H	60%	94%	-34%	Scheduled
Oct 1	Cubs	H	60%	57%	+3%	WIN✓
Sep 30	Cubs	H	59%	55%	+4%	WIN✓
Sep 27	Diamondbacks	H	71%	42%	+30%★	WIN✓
Sep 27	Diamondbacks	H	70%	53%	+17%★	WIN✓
Sep 26	Diamondbacks	H	67%	-	-	LOSS✗
Sep 25	Dodgers	A	29%	-	-	WIN✗
Sep 24	Dodgers	A	44%	-	-	WIN✗
Aug 8	Astros	H	65%	-	-	LOSS✗
Aug 7	Diamondbacks	A	49%	-	-	WIN✗
Aug 6	Diamondbacks	A	49%	-	-	LOSS✓
Aug 5	Diamondbacks	A	49%	-	-	WIN✗
Aug 4	Diamondbacks	A	48%	50%	-2%	LOSS✓
Aug 2	Giants	H	56%	55%	+1%	WIN✓
Aug 2	Giants	H	56%	57%	-1%	WIN✓
Aug 1	Giants	H	56%	56%	0%	WIN✓
Jul 31	Giants	H	56%	-	-	LOSS✗
Jul 29	Rockies	H	56%	-	-	WIN✓
Jul 29	Rockies	H	56%	-	-	WIN✓
Jul 26	Marlins	A	47%	-	-	WIN✗
Jul 25	Marlins	A	47%	-	-	WIN✗
Jul 24	Marlins	A	47%	-	-	WIN✗
Jul 23	Braves	A	47%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jul 22	Braves	A	47%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jul 21	Braves	A	47%	-	-	WIN✗
Jul 20	Braves	A	47%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jul 19	Royals	A	47%	-	-	WIN✗
Jul 18	Royals	A	47%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jul 18	Royals	A	47%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jul 12	Blue Jays	H	55%	-	-	WIN✓
Jul 12	Blue Jays	H	55%	-	-	WIN✓
Jul 11	Blue Jays	H	54%	-	-	LOSS✗
Jul 10	Diamondbacks	H	57%	-	-	LOSS✗
Jul 9	Diamondbacks	H	57%	-	-	WIN✓
Jul 8	Diamondbacks	H	57%	-	-	WIN✓
Jul 7	Diamondbacks	H	57%	-	-	LOSS✗
Jul 5	Dodgers	A	45%	-	-	WIN✗
Jul 5	Dodgers	A	45%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jul 4	Dodgers	A	45%	31%	+14%★	LOSS✓
Jul 3	Dodgers	A	45%	48%	-3%	LOSS✓
Jul 1	Cubs	A	47%	39%	+8%★	LOSS✓
Jul 1	Cubs	A	47%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jun 30	Cubs	A	47%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jun 28	Dodgers	H	55%	-	-	LOSS✗
Jun 28	Dodgers	H	55%	-	-	LOSS✗
Jun 27	Dodgers	H	55%	-	-	WIN✓
Jun 25	Braves	H	57%	-	-	WIN✓
Jun 24	Braves	H	57%	-	-	WIN✓
Jun 23	Braves	H	57%	-	-	WIN✓
Jun 21	Rangers	A	47%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jun 20	Rangers	A	47%	-	-	WIN✗
Jun 20	Rangers	A	48%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jun 17	Cardinals	A	48%	-	-	WIN✗
Jun 16	Cardinals	A	48%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jun 15	Cardinals	A	48%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jun 14	Orioles	A	48%	-	-	WIN✗
Jun 13	Orioles	A	48%	-	-	WIN✗
Jun 12	Orioles	A	49%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jun 10	Reds	H	57%	-	-	WIN✓
Jun 10	Reds	H	57%	-	-	LOSS✗
Jun 9	Reds	H	57%	-	-	WIN✓
Jun 7	Mets	H	55%	-	-	LOSS✗
Jun 7	Mets	H	55%	-	-	WIN✓
Jun 6	Mets	H	53%	-	-	LOSS✗
Jun 4	Phillies	A	47%	-	-	LOSS✓
Jun 3	Phillies	A	47%	35%	+13%★	LOSS✓
Jun 2	Phillies	A	47%	44%	+4%	LOSS✓
May 31	Nationals	A	44%	-	-	LOSS✓
May 30	Nationals	A	44%	-	-	LOSS✓
May 29	Nationals	A	44%	-	-	WIN✗
May 27	Phillies	H	50%	-	-	LOSS✓
May 27	Phillies	H	40%	-	-	LOSS✓
May 25	Phillies	H	35%	-	-	LOSS✓
May 24	Athletics	H	88%	-	-	LOSS✗
May 24	Athletics	H	68%	-	-	WIN✓
May 23	Athletics	H	93%	-	-	WIN✓
May 21	Dodgers	H	55%	-	-	LOSS✗
May 20	Dodgers	H	46%	-	-	LOSS✓
May 19	Dodgers	H	83%	-	-	WIN✓
May 17	Mariners	A	95%	-	-	WIN✓
May 16	Mariners	A	83%	-	-	WIN✓
May 16	Mariners	A	95%	-	-	WIN✓
May 14	Brewers	A	18%	-	-	LOSS✓
May 13	Brewers	A	90%	-	-	WIN✓
May 12	Brewers	A	14%	-	-	LOSS✓
May 10	Cardinals	H	65%	-	-	WIN✓
May 9	Cardinals	H	60%	-	-	WIN✓
May 9	Cardinals	H	57%	-	-	LOSS✗
May 8	Cardinals	H	34%	-	-	LOSS✓
May 6	Giants	A	50%	-	-	WIN✗
May 6	Giants	A	83%	45%	+38%★	WIN✓
May 5	Giants	A	90%	55%	+35%★	LOSS✗
May 3	Chicago White Sox	H	86%	59%	+27%★	WIN✓
May 3	Chicago White Sox	H	74%	61%	+13%★	LOSS✗
May 2	Chicago White Sox	H	80%	64%	+16%★	LOSS✗
Apr 29	Cubs	H	75%	-	-	LOSS✗
Apr 29	Cubs	H	43%	-	-	LOSS✓
Apr 28	Cubs	H	60%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 26	Diamondbacks	A	27%	-	-	LOSS✓
Apr 25	Diamondbacks	A	46%	-	-	WIN✗
Apr 23	Rockies	A	79%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 23	Rockies	A	97%	-	-	LOSS✗
Apr 22	Rockies	A	99%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 19	Angels	A	71%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 19	Angels	A	90%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 18	Angels	A	80%	-	-	LOSS✗
Apr 17	Mariners	H	87%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 16	Mariners	H	66%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 15	Mariners	H	91%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 12	Rockies	H	56%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 12	Rockies	H	81%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 11	Rockies	H	51%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 10	Rockies	H	69%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 8	Pirates	A	63%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 7	Pirates	A	81%	-	-	LOSS✗
Apr 6	Pirates	A	94%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 5	Red Sox	A	77%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 4	Red Sox	A	88%	-	-	WIN✓
Apr 3	Red Sox	A	54%	-	-	LOSS✗
Apr 1	Giants	H	65%	67%	-2%	WIN✓
Apr 1	Giants	H	32%	57%	-25%	LOSS✓
Mar 31	Giants	H	55%	-	-	LOSS✗
Mar 29	Tigers	H	72%	-	-	WIN✓
Mar 28	Tigers	H	71%	-	-	LOSS✗
Mar 26	Tigers	H	81%	-	-	LOSS✗
Mar 23	Mariners	H	61%	-	-	WIN✓
Mar 23	Diamondbacks	H	23%	-	-	LOSS✓
Mar 21	Brewers	A	20%	-	-	LOSS✓
Mar 21	Rockies	H	72%	-	-	LOSS✗
Mar 21	Dodgers	A	31%	-	-	LOSS✓
Mar 20	Chicago White Sox	H	92%	-	-	WIN✓
Mar 17	Mariners	A	83%	-	-	WIN✓
Mar 16	Giants	H	53%	-	-	WIN✓
Mar 15	Diamondbacks	A	94%	-	-	LOSS✗
Mar 14	Guardians	H	73%	-	-	WIN✓
Mar 14	Rangers	A	68%	-	-	LOSS✗
Mar 13	Athletics	A	79%	-	-	WIN✓
Mar 13	Royals	H	95%	-	-	LOSS✗
Mar 10	Angels	A	44%	-	-	WIN✗
Mar 9	Rangers	H	65%	-	-	LOSS✗
Mar 8	Reds	H	86%	-	-	WIN✓
Mar 7	Guardians	A	40%	-	-	LOSS✓
Mar 7	Cubs	H	66%	-	-	WIN✓
Mar 3	Chicago White Sox	A	17%	-	-	WIN✗

Model divergence: our model gives this team >5% more probability than the market implies

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Frequently Asked Questions

The San Diego Padres play in the National League conference, NL West division.

The Padres play their home games in San Diego.

We analyze Padres games using multiple factors including weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, injury reports, and historical performance to calculate win probabilities.

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