NFL weekly recap: 2026 week 4
Hit rate this week: 63% across 16 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 68% — final BUF 26–NE 29
- Injuries (favors BUF)
- Home Field Advantage (favors BUF)
- ELO Rating (favors BUF)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers at Browns Fri, Oct 2 | CLE 66% • PIT 34% | CLE 27–PIT 24 | Hit |
| Colts at Commanders Sun, Oct 4 | WSH 62% • IND 38% | WSH 13–IND 30 | Miss |
| Titans at Ravens Sun, Oct 4 | BAL 60% • TEN 40% | BAL 24–TEN 18 | Hit |
| Packers at Buccaneers Sun, Oct 4 | TB 41% • GB 59% | TB 14–GB 17 | Hit |
| Cowboys at Texans Sun, Oct 4 | HOU 67% • DAL 33% | HOU 30–DAL 34 | Miss |
| Jets at Bears Sun, Oct 4 | CHI 42% • NYJ 58% | CHI 23–NYJ 12 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Giants Sun, Oct 4 | NYG 55% • ARI 45% | NYG 36–ARI 24 | Hit |
| Rams at Eagles Sun, Oct 4 | PHI 44% • LAR 56% | PHI 20–LAR 24 | Hit |
| Patriots at Bills Sun, Oct 4 | BUF 68% • NE 32% | BUF 26–NE 29 | Miss |
| Jaguars at Bengals Sun, Oct 4 | CIN 58% • JAX 42% | CIN 17–JAX 22 | Miss |
| Dolphins at Vikings Sun, Oct 4 | MIN 73% • MIA 27% | MIN 15–MIA 10 | Hit |
| Broncos at 49ers Sun, Oct 4 | SF 52% • DEN 48% | SF 24–DEN 14 | Hit |
| Chiefs at Raiders Sun, Oct 4 | LV 46% • KC 54% | LV 27–KC 30 | Hit |
| Chargers at Seahawks Sun, Oct 4 | SEA 63% • LAC 37% | SEA 30–LAC 23 | Hit |
| Lions at Panthers Mon, Oct 5 | CAR 47% • DET 53% | CAR 32–DET 26 | Miss |
| Falcons at Saints Tue, Oct 6 | NO 48% • ATL 52% | NO 24–ATL 45 | Hit |