NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-10-19 (2026-27)
Hit rate this week: 64% across 28 games; season-to-date: 64%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 90% — final IND 105–DAL 121
- Defensive Efficiency (favors IND)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors IND)
- Injuries (favors IND)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics at Pistons Tue, Oct 20 | DET 22% • BOS 78% | DET 121–BOS 113 | Miss |
| 76ers at Knicks Tue, Oct 20 | NYK 42% • PHI 58% | NYK 100–PHI 106 | Hit |
| Thunder at Spurs Wed, Oct 21 | SAS 89% • OKC 11% | SAS 104–OKC 116 | Miss |
| Hawks at Magic Wed, Oct 21 | ORL 42% • ATL 58% | ORL 125–ATL 132 | Hit |
| Bucks at Wizards Wed, Oct 21 | WSH 40% • MIL 60% | WSH 128–MIL 116 | Miss |
| Bulls at Raptors Wed, Oct 21 | TOR 71% • CHI 29% | TOR 135–CHI 92 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Heat Wed, Oct 21 | MIA 63% • MIN 37% | MIA 106–MIN 131 | Miss |
| Hornets at Nets Wed, Oct 21 | BKN 71% • CHA 29% | BKN 103–CHA 110 | Miss |
| Jazz at Grizzlies Thu, Oct 22 | MEM 64% • UTA 36% | MEM 123–UTA 103 | Hit |
| Pacers at Pelicans Thu, Oct 22 | NOP 75% • IND 25% | NOP 120–IND 123 | Miss |
| Mavericks at Rockets Thu, Oct 22 | HOU 70% • DAL 30% | HOU 128–DAL 110 | Hit |
| Suns at Trail Blazers Thu, Oct 22 | POR 56% • PHX 44% | POR 124–PHX 83 | Hit |
| Warriors at Lakers Thu, Oct 22 | LAL 65% • GSW 35% | LAL 127–GSW 105 | Hit |
| Kings at Clippers Thu, Oct 22 | LAC 57% • SAC 43% | LAC 121–SAC 96 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at 76ers Thu, Oct 22 | PHI 50% • CLE 50% | PHI 114–CLE 106 | Hit |
| Nuggets at Thunder Fri, Oct 23 | OKC 48% • DEN 52% | OKC 96–DEN 84 | Miss |
| Bulls at Bucks Fri, Oct 23 | MIL 86% • CHI 14% | MIL 125–CHI 132 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Magic Fri, Oct 23 | ORL 13% • MIN 87% | ORL 93–MIN 115 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Pacers Fri, Oct 23 | IND 90% • DAL 10% | IND 105–DAL 121 | Miss |
| Raptors at Wizards Fri, Oct 23 | WSH 14% • TOR 86% | WSH 102–TOR 112 | Hit |
| Hawks at Hornets Fri, Oct 23 | CHA 34% • ATL 66% | CHA 81–ATL 128 | Hit |
| Knicks at Celtics Fri, Oct 23 | BOS 54% • NYK 46% | BOS 107–NYK 103 | Hit |
| Pistons at Heat Sat, Oct 24 | MIA 17% • DET 83% | MIA 111–DET 128 | Hit |
| Rockets at Spurs Sat, Oct 24 | SAS 17% • HOU 83% | SAS 110–HOU 114 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Jazz Sat, Oct 24 | UTA 23% • NOP 77% | UTA 120–NOP 119 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at Warriors Sat, Oct 24 | GSW 14% • MEM 86% | GSW 108–MEM 111 | Hit |
| Clippers at Lakers Sat, Oct 24 | LAL 72% • LAC 28% | LAL 125–LAC 117 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Kings Sat, Oct 24 | SAC 14% • POR 86% | SAC 120–POR 128 | Hit |