NHL report card: week of 2026-04-06 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
57.7%
hit rate
0.249
Brier score
30 of 52 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Blues at AvalancheCOL 67.2% pre-game — final COL 2–STL 3
- Predators at DucksANA 66.4% pre-game — final ANA 0–NSH 5
- Golden Knights at AvalancheCOL 63.8% pre-game — final COL 2–VGK 3
- Canucks at SharksSJS 63.2% pre-game — final SJS 3–VAN 4
- Canadiens at IslandersNYI 62.1% pre-game — final NYI 1–MTL 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Flames at AvalancheCOL 66.9% pre-game — final COL 3–CGY 1
- Maple Leafs at IslandersNYI 66.5% pre-game — final NYI 5–TOR 3
- Canucks at KingsLAK 61.6% pre-game — final LAK 4–VAN 1
- Predators at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 60.3% pre-game — final UTA 4–NSH 1
- Sharks at DucksANA 59.4% pre-game — final ANA 6–SJS 1
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blues at Avalanche Mon, Apr 6 | COL 67.2% · STL 32.8% | COL 2–STL 3 | Miss |
| Lightning at Sabres Mon, Apr 6 | BUF 56.3% · TBL 43.7% | BUF 4–TBL 2 | Hit |
| Kraken at Jets Mon, Apr 6 | WPG 58.1% · SEA 41.9% | WPG 6–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Sharks Tue, Apr 7 | SJS 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | SJS 3–CHI 2 | Hit |
| Predators at Kings Tue, Apr 7 | LAK 56.9% · NSH 43.1% | LAK 3–NSH 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jackets at Red Wings Tue, Apr 7 | DET 55.9% · CBJ 44.1% | DET 3–CBJ 4 | Miss |
| Bruins at Hurricanes Tue, Apr 7 | CAR 56.3% · BOS 43.7% | CAR 6–BOS 5 | Hit |
| Lightning at Senators Tue, Apr 7 | OTT 53.7% · TBL 46.3% | OTT 6–TBL 2 | Hit |
| Panthers at Canadiens Tue, Apr 7 | MTL 58.2% · FLA 41.8% | MTL 4–FLA 3 | Hit |
| Flyers at Devils Tue, Apr 7 | NJD 56.3% · PHI 43.7% | NJD 1–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Blues Wed, Apr 8 | STL 43.1% · COL 56.9% | STL 1–COL 3 | Hit |
| Flames at Stars Wed, Apr 8 | DAL 56.8% · CGY 43.2% | DAL 4–CGY 3 | Hit |
| Kraken at Wild Wed, Apr 8 | MIN 58.1% · SEA 41.9% | MIN 5–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Oilers at Utah Hockey Club Wed, Apr 8 | UTA 58.8% · EDM 41.2% | UTA 6–EDM 5 | Hit |
| Predators at Ducks Wed, Apr 8 | ANA 66.4% · NSH 33.6% | ANA 0–NSH 5 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Canucks Wed, Apr 8 | VAN 48.1% · VGK 51.8% | VAN 1–VGK 2 | Hit |
| Sabres at Rangers Wed, Apr 8 | NYR 56.8% · BUF 43.2% | NYR 3–BUF 5 | Miss |
| Capitals at Maple Leafs Wed, Apr 8 | TOR 52.4% · WSH 47.6% | TOR 0–WSH 4 | Miss |
| Oilers at Sharks Thu, Apr 9 | SJS 56.2% · EDM 43.8% | SJS 2–EDM 5 | Miss |
| Maple Leafs at Islanders Thu, Apr 9 | NYI 66.5% · TOR 33.5% | NYI 5–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Penguins at Devils Thu, Apr 9 | NJD 56.8% · PIT 43.2% | NJD 2–PIT 5 | Miss |
| Lightning at Canadiens Thu, Apr 9 | MTL 52.8% · TBL 47.2% | MTL 2–TBL 1 | Hit |
| Flyers at Red Wings Thu, Apr 9 | DET 56.3% · PHI 43.7% | DET 6–PHI 3 | Hit |
| Panthers at Senators Thu, Apr 9 | OTT 57.4% · FLA 42.6% | OTT 5–FLA 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jackets at Sabres Thu, Apr 9 | BUF 54.6% · CBJ 45.4% | BUF 5–CBJ 0 | Hit |
| Jets at Blues Fri, Apr 10 | STL 52.3% · WPG 47.8% | STL 2–WPG 3 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Blackhawks Fri, Apr 10 | CHI 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | CHI 2–CAR 7 | Miss |
| Predators at Utah Hockey Club Fri, Apr 10 | UTA 60.3% · NSH 39.7% | UTA 4–NSH 1 | Hit |
| Flames at Avalanche Fri, Apr 10 | COL 66.9% · CGY 33.1% | COL 3–CGY 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Stars Fri, Apr 10 | DAL 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | DAL 5–MIN 4 | Hit |
| Sharks at Ducks Fri, Apr 10 | ANA 59.4% · SJS 40.6% | ANA 6–SJS 1 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Kraken Fri, Apr 10 | SEA 56.3% · VGK 43.7% | SEA 4–VGK 3 | Hit |
| Canucks at Kings Fri, Apr 10 | LAK 61.6% · VAN 38.5% | LAK 4–VAN 1 | Hit |
| Lightning at Bruins Sat, Apr 11 | BOS 55.1% · TBL 44.9% | BOS 1–TBL 2 | Miss |
| Senators at Islanders Sat, Apr 11 | NYI 57.1% · OTT 42.9% | NYI 0–OTT 3 | Miss |
| Capitals at Penguins Sat, Apr 11 | PIT 54.6% · WSH 45.4% | PIT 3–WSH 6 | Miss |
| Oilers at Kings Sat, Apr 11 | LAK 52.3% · EDM 47.7% | LAK 1–EDM 0 | Hit |
| Wild at Predators Sat, Apr 11 | NSH 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | NSH 2–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Utah Hockey Club Sat, Apr 11 | UTA 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | UTA 1–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Devils at Red Wings Sat, Apr 11 | DET 56.3% · NJD 43.7% | DET 3–NJD 5 | Miss |
| Rangers at Stars Sat, Apr 11 | DAL 54.6% · NYR 45.4% | DAL 2–NYR 0 | Hit |
| Blues at Blackhawks Sat, Apr 11 | CHI 56.3% · STL 43.7% | CHI 3–STL 5 | Miss |
| Flyers at Jets Sat, Apr 11 | WPG 54.6% · PHI 45.4% | WPG 1–PHI 7 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Canadiens Sat, Apr 11 | MTL 57.4% · CBJ 42.6% | MTL 2–CBJ 5 | Miss |
| Flames at Kraken Sat, Apr 11 | SEA 56.3% · CGY 43.7% | SEA 4–CGY 1 | Hit |
| Panthers at Maple Leafs Sat, Apr 11 | TOR 54.8% · FLA 45.2% | TOR 2–FLA 6 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Avalanche Sun, Apr 12 | COL 63.8% · VGK 36.2% | COL 2–VGK 3 | Miss |
| Canucks at Sharks Sun, Apr 12 | SJS 63.2% · VAN 36.8% | SJS 3–VAN 4 | Miss |
| Penguins at Capitals Sun, Apr 12 | WSH 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | WSH 3–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Islanders Sun, Apr 12 | NYI 62.1% · MTL 37.9% | NYI 1–MTL 4 | Miss |
| Bruins at Blue Jackets Sun, Apr 12 | CBJ 49.0% · BOS 51.0% | CBJ 2–BOS 3 | Hit |
| Senators at Devils Sun, Apr 12 | NJD 54.2% · OTT 45.8% | NJD 4–OTT 3 | Hit |
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