Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars 57% to win. The biggest signal favoring Stars:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DAL 52% (−5)
- If the rest edge were neutral: DAL 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
DAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Stars defeated the Flames 4-3.
Our model predicted the Stars would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Stars and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Stars (3 days rest) vs Flames (2 days rest)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Stars won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Stars
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Flames
Stars
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Stars has a 57% win probability, while Flames has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.