St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 67% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Offensive Efficiency. Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Blues (2.6 PPG)
- Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Blues (24-29)
- Home Field Advantage. Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 61% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: COL 61% (−6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 62% (−5)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 62% (−5)
Win probability movement
COL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Blues defeated the Avalanche 3-2.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 67% confidence, but the Blues won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Blues (2.6 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Blues (24-29)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Blues won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Avalanche
Blues
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Blues
Avalanche
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Avalanche has a 67% win probability, while Blues has a 33% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.