Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 64% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Home Field Advantage. Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Golden Knights (29-20)
- Defensive Efficiency. Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 58% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: COL 59% (−5)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 60% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 60% (−4)
Win probability movement
COL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Golden Knights defeated the Avalanche 3-2.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 64% confidence, but the Golden Knights won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Avalanche and was a notable factor: Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Golden Knights (29-20)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Golden Knights won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Golden Knights
Avalanche
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Avalanche has a 64% win probability, while Golden Knights has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.