Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Maple Leafs:
- Home Field Advantage. Maple Leafs are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 49% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 54% (+2)
- If the rest edge were neutral: TOR 53% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 53% (+1)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Capitals defeated the Maple Leafs 4-0.
Our model predicted the Maple Leafs would win with 52% confidence, but the Capitals won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a notable factor: Maple Leafs are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Capitals and was a contributing factor: Capitals defense (2.9 Opp PPG) better than Maple Leafs (3.5 Opp PPG)
- Rest Days favored the Capitals and was a contributing factor: Capitals rest advantage (3 days rest) over Maple Leafs (4 days rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Capitals won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Washington Capitals
- Rest DaysFavors Washington Capitals
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Capitals
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 52% win probability, while Capitals has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.