NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-03-16 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 49% across 55 games; season-to-date: 53%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 59% — final UTA 1–ANA 4
- Home Field Advantage (favors UTA)
- Defensive Efficiency (favors UTA)
- Offensive Efficiency
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers at Kraken Mon, Mar 16 | SEA 56% • FLA 44% | SEA 6–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Predators at Oilers Mon, Mar 16 | EDM 59% • NSH 41% | EDM 3–NSH 1 | Hit |
| Bruins at Devils Mon, Mar 16 | NJD 53% • BOS 47% | NJD 4–BOS 3 | Hit |
| Kings at Rangers Mon, Mar 16 | NYR 56% • LAK 44% | NYR 1–LAK 4 | Miss |
| Flames at Red Wings Mon, Mar 16 | DET 56% • CGY 44% | DET 5–CGY 2 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Stars Tue, Mar 17 | DAL 56% • UTA 44% | DAL 3–UTA 6 | Miss |
| Penguins at Avalanche Tue, Mar 17 | COL 56% • PIT 44% | COL 2–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Islanders at Maple Leafs Tue, Mar 17 | TOR 53% • NYI 47% | TOR 1–NYI 3 | Miss |
| Bruins at Canadiens Tue, Mar 17 | MTL 55% • BOS 45% | MTL 3–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Blue Jackets Tue, Mar 17 | CBJ 56% • CAR 44% | CBJ 5–CAR 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Blackhawks Tue, Mar 17 | CHI 56% • MIN 44% | CHI 3–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Predators at Jets Wed, Mar 18 | WPG 56% • NSH 44% | WPG 3–NSH 4 | Miss |
| Sharks at Oilers Wed, Mar 18 | EDM 58% • SJS 42% | EDM 5–SJS 3 | Hit |
| Lightning at Kraken Wed, Mar 18 | SEA 56% • TBL 44% | SEA 2–TBL 6 | Miss |
| Panthers at Canucks Wed, Mar 18 | VAN 51% • FLA 49% | VAN 5–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Sabres at Golden Knights Wed, Mar 18 | VGK 56% • BUF 44% | VGK 0–BUF 2 | Miss |
| Devils at Rangers Wed, Mar 18 | NYR 56% • NJD 44% | NYR 3–NJD 6 | Miss |
| Penguins at Hurricanes Wed, Mar 18 | CAR 56% • PIT 44% | CAR 6–PIT 5 | Hit |
| Senators at Capitals Wed, Mar 18 | WSH 57% • OTT 43% | WSH 4–OTT 1 | Hit |
| Stars at Avalanche Thu, Mar 19 | COL 56% • DAL 44% | COL 1–DAL 2 | Miss |
| Blues at Flames Thu, Mar 19 | CGY 57% • STL 43% | CGY 2–STL 1 | Hit |
| Flyers at Ducks Thu, Mar 19 | ANA 56% • PHI 44% | ANA 2–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Rangers at Blue Jackets Thu, Mar 19 | CBJ 56% • NYR 44% | CBJ 6–NYR 3 | Hit |
| Islanders at Senators Thu, Mar 19 | OTT 56% • NYI 44% | OTT 3–NYI 2 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Red Wings Thu, Mar 19 | DET 56% • MTL 44% | DET 3–MTL 1 | Hit |
| Jets at Bruins Thu, Mar 19 | BOS 59% • WPG 41% | BOS 6–WPG 1 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Wild Thu, Mar 19 | MIN 56% • CHI 44% | MIN 1–CHI 2 | Miss |
| Kraken at Predators Fri, Mar 20 | NSH 56% • SEA 44% | NSH 3–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Panthers at Oilers Fri, Mar 20 | EDM 58% • FLA 42% | EDM 0–FLA 4 | Miss |
| Lightning at Canucks Fri, Mar 20 | VAN 44% • TBL 56% | VAN 2–TBL 6 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Golden Knights Fri, Mar 20 | VGK 54% • UTA 46% | VGK 0–UTA 4 | Miss |
| Sabres at Sharks Fri, Mar 20 | SJS 56% • BUF 44% | SJS 0–BUF 5 | Miss |
| Flyers at Kings Fri, Mar 20 | LAK 56% • PHI 44% | LAK 3–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Maple Leafs Fri, Mar 20 | TOR 56% • CAR 44% | TOR 3–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Devils at Capitals Fri, Mar 20 | WSH 59% • NJD 41% | WSH 2–NJD 1 | Hit |
| Avalanche at Blackhawks Sat, Mar 21 | CHI 56% • COL 44% | CHI 1–COL 4 | Miss |
| Panthers at Flames Sat, Mar 21 | CGY 55% • FLA 45% | CGY 4–FLA 1 | Hit |
| Ducks at Utah Hockey Club Sat, Mar 21 | UTA 59% • ANA 41% | UTA 1–ANA 4 | Miss |
| Jets at Penguins Sat, Mar 21 | PIT 56% • WPG 44% | PIT 5–WPG 4 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Predators Sat, Mar 21 | NSH 53% • VGK 47% | NSH 4–VGK 1 | Hit |
| Sabres at Kings Sat, Mar 21 | LAK 56% • BUF 44% | LAK 1–BUF 4 | Miss |
| Stars at Wild Sat, Mar 21 | MIN 56% • DAL 44% | MIN 2–DAL 1 | Hit |
| Flyers at Sharks Sat, Mar 21 | SJS 56% • PHI 44% | SJS 1–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Kraken at Blue Jackets Sat, Mar 21 | CBJ 56% • SEA 44% | CBJ 5–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Senators Sat, Mar 21 | OTT 58% • TOR 42% | OTT 5–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Islanders at Canadiens Sat, Mar 21 | MTL 56% • NYI 44% | MTL 7–NYI 3 | Hit |
| Blues at Canucks Sat, Mar 21 | VAN 54% • STL 46% | VAN 1–STL 3 | Miss |
| Bruins at Red Wings Sun, Mar 22 | DET 56% • BOS 44% | DET 2–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Lightning at Oilers Sun, Mar 22 | EDM 52% • TBL 48% | EDM 2–TBL 5 | Miss |
| Jets at Rangers Sun, Mar 22 | NYR 56% • WPG 44% | NYR 2–WPG 3 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Capitals Sun, Mar 22 | WSH 49% • COL 51% | WSH 2–COL 3 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Penguins Sun, Mar 22 | PIT 56% • CAR 44% | PIT 1–CAR 5 | Miss |
| Predators at Blackhawks Sun, Mar 22 | CHI 56% • NSH 44% | CHI 2–NSH 3 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Islanders Sun, Mar 22 | NYI 56% • CBJ 44% | NYI 1–CBJ 0 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Stars Sun, Mar 22 | DAL 56% • VGK 44% | DAL 2–VGK 3 | Miss |