MLB report card: week of 2026-06-29 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
47.3%
hit rate
0.256
Brier score
44 of 93 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Cardinals at CubsCHC 63.1% pre-game — final CHC 1–STL 17
- Pirates at NationalsWSH 56.8% pre-game — final WSH 5–PIT 11
- Pirates at NationalsWSH 56.8% pre-game — final WSH 1–PIT 7
- Reds at BrewersMIL 56.7% pre-game — final MIL 2–CIN 7
- Marlins at AthleticsOAK 56.3% pre-game — final OAK 5–MIA 12
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Pirates at NationalsWSH 58.5% pre-game — final WSH 9–PIT 5
- Reds at BrewersMIL 56.7% pre-game — final MIL 4–CIN 2
- Reds at BrewersMIL 56.7% pre-game — final MIL 7–CIN 2
- Reds at BrewersMIL 56.7% pre-game — final MIL 5–CIN 3
- Twins at YankeesNYY 56.6% pre-game — final NYY 5–MIN 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox at Orioles Mon, Jun 29 | BAL 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | BAL 2–CWS 8 | Miss |
| Pirates at Phillies Mon, Jun 29 | PHI 53.8% · PIT 46.2% | PHI 7–PIT 11 | Miss |
| Rangers at Guardians Mon, Jun 29 | CLE 55.1% · TEX 44.9% | CLE 3–TEX 6 | Miss |
| Tigers at Yankees Mon, Jun 29 | NYY 48.8% · DET 51.2% | NYY 3–DET 7 | Hit |
| Mets at Blue Jays Mon, Jun 29 | TOR 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | TOR 2–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Red Sox Mon, Jun 29 | BOS 45.4% · WSH 54.6% | BOS 6–WSH 3 | Miss |
| Reds at Brewers Mon, Jun 29 | MIL 56.7% · CIN 43.3% | MIL 5–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Padres at Cubs Tue, Jun 30 | CHC 53.1% · SD 46.9% | CHC 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Astros Tue, Jun 30 | HOU 54.6% · MIN 45.4% | HOU 4–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Marlins at Rockies Tue, Jun 30 | COL 55.0% · MIA 45.0% | COL 7–MIA 10 | Miss |
| Angels at Mariners Tue, Jun 30 | SEA 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | SEA 6–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Athletics Tue, Jun 30 | OAK 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | OAK 4–LAD 9 | Miss |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Tue, Jun 30 | ARI 53.4% · SF 46.6% | ARI 5–SF 4 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Orioles Tue, Jun 30 | BAL 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | BAL 3–CWS 9 | Miss |
| Rangers at Guardians Tue, Jun 30 | CLE 55.1% · TEX 44.9% | CLE 2–TEX 4 | Miss |
| Pirates at Phillies Tue, Jun 30 | PHI 53.8% · PIT 46.2% | PHI 8–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Tigers at Yankees Tue, Jun 30 | NYY 54.9% · DET 45.1% | NYY 3–DET 9 | Miss |
| Mets at Blue Jays Tue, Jun 30 | TOR 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | TOR 0–NYM 3 | Miss |
| Nationals at Red Sox Tue, Jun 30 | BOS 51.5% · WSH 48.5% | BOS 1–WSH 8 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Braves Tue, Jun 30 | ATL 55.6% · STL 44.4% | ATL 3–STL 5 | Miss |
| Rays at Royals Tue, Jun 30 | KC 54.0% · TB 46.0% | KC 4–TB 10 | Miss |
| Reds at Brewers Tue, Jun 30 | MIL 56.7% · CIN 43.3% | MIL 7–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Cubs Wed, Jul 1 | CHC 53.1% · SD 46.9% | CHC 9–SD 7 | Hit |
| Twins at Astros Wed, Jul 1 | HOU 54.6% · MIN 45.4% | HOU 6–MIN 4 | Hit |
| Marlins at Rockies Wed, Jul 1 | COL 55.0% · MIA 45.0% | COL 3–MIA 14 | Miss |
| Angels at Mariners Wed, Jul 1 | SEA 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | SEA 8–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Athletics Wed, Jul 1 | OAK 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | OAK 3–LAD 9 | Miss |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Wed, Jul 1 | ARI 53.4% · SF 46.6% | ARI 8–SF 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Orioles Wed, Jul 1 | BAL 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | BAL 6–CWS 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Guardians Wed, Jul 1 | CLE 55.1% · TEX 44.9% | CLE 9–TEX 4 | Hit |
| Tigers at Yankees Wed, Jul 1 | NYY 54.9% · DET 45.1% | NYY 2–DET 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Red Sox Wed, Jul 1 | BOS 51.5% · WSH 48.5% | BOS 2–WSH 10 | Miss |
| Padres at Cubs Wed, Jul 1 | CHC 53.1% · SD 46.9% | CHC 23–SD 3 | Hit |
| Mets at Blue Jays Wed, Jul 1 | TOR 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | TOR 9–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Phillies Wed, Jul 1 | PHI 53.8% · PIT 46.2% | PHI 10–PIT 6 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Braves Wed, Jul 1 | ATL 55.6% · STL 44.4% | ATL 5–STL 1 | Hit |
| Rays at Royals Wed, Jul 1 | KC 54.0% · TB 46.0% | KC 0–TB 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Brewers Thu, Jul 2 | MIL 56.7% · CIN 43.3% | MIL 4–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Astros Thu, Jul 2 | HOU 54.6% · MIN 45.4% | HOU 3–MIN 8 | Miss |
| Marlins at Rockies Thu, Jul 2 | COL 55.0% · MIA 45.0% | COL 6–MIA 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Athletics Thu, Jul 2 | OAK 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | OAK 7–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Thu, Jul 2 | ARI 53.4% · SF 46.6% | ARI 4–SF 6 | Miss |
| Pirates at Phillies Thu, Jul 2 | PHI 53.8% · PIT 46.2% | PHI 1–PIT 6 | Miss |
| Reds at Brewers Thu, Jul 2 | MIL 56.7% · CIN 43.3% | MIL 2–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Marlins at Rockies Thu, Jul 2 | COL 55.0% · MIA 45.0% | COL 14–MIA 4 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Thu, Jul 2 | CLE 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | CLE 6–CWS 5 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Braves Thu, Jul 2 | ATL 55.6% · STL 44.4% | ATL 5–STL 11 | Miss |
| Rays at Royals Thu, Jul 2 | KC 54.0% · TB 46.0% | KC 2–TB 5 | Miss |
| Tigers at Rangers Fri, Jul 3 | TEX 55.8% · DET 44.2% | TEX 10–DET 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Mariners Fri, Jul 3 | SEA 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | SEA 1–LAA 0 | Hit |
| Padres at Dodgers Fri, Jul 3 | LAD 54.9% · SD 45.1% | LAD 12–SD 7 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Cubs Fri, Jul 3 | CHC 63.1% · STL 36.9% | CHC 1–STL 17 | Miss |
| Pirates at Nationals Fri, Jul 3 | WSH 58.5% · PIT 41.5% | WSH 9–PIT 5 | Hit |
| Twins at Yankees Fri, Jul 3 | NYY 56.6% · MIN 43.4% | NYY 5–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Fri, Jul 3 | CLE 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | CLE 4–CWS 3 | Hit |
| Orioles at Reds Fri, Jul 3 | CIN 53.6% · BAL 46.4% | CIN 0–BAL 3 | Miss |
| Mets at Braves Fri, Jul 3 | ATL 53.1% · NYM 46.9% | ATL 5–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Rockies Sat, Jul 4 | COL 54.3% · SF 45.7% | COL 15–SF 3 | Hit |
| Rays at Astros Sat, Jul 4 | HOU 56.1% · TB 43.9% | HOU 1–TB 3 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Angels Sat, Jul 4 | LAA 47.2% · BOS 52.8% | LAA 2–BOS 5 | Hit |
| Marlins at Athletics Sat, Jul 4 | OAK 56.3% · MIA 43.7% | OAK 5–MIA 12 | Miss |
| Brewers at Diamondbacks Sat, Jul 4 | ARI 54.3% · MIL 45.7% | ARI 4–MIL 7 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Mariners Sat, Jul 4 | SEA 51.3% · TOR 48.7% | SEA 0–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Padres at Dodgers Sat, Jul 4 | LAD 54.9% · SD 45.1% | LAD 4–SD 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Nationals Sat, Jul 4 | WSH 56.8% · PIT 43.2% | WSH 1–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Twins at Yankees Sat, Jul 4 | NYY 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | NYY 4–MIN 11 | Miss |
| Tigers at Rangers Sat, Jul 4 | TEX 55.8% · DET 44.2% | TEX 0–DET 3 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Mariners Sat, Jul 4 | SEA 53.0% · TOR 46.9% | SEA 11–TOR 0 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Sat, Jul 4 | CLE 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | CLE 1–CWS 3 | Miss |
| Orioles at Reds Sat, Jul 4 | CIN 55.3% · BAL 44.7% | CIN 5–BAL 8 | Miss |
| Rays at Astros Sat, Jul 4 | HOU 54.4% · TB 45.6% | HOU 10–TB 8 | Hit |
| Mets at Braves Sun, Jul 5 | ATL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | ATL 14–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Cubs Sun, Jul 5 | CHC 55.6% · STL 44.4% | CHC 0–STL 3 | Miss |
| Phillies at Royals Sun, Jul 5 | KC 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | KC 1–PHI 6 | Miss |
| Giants at Rockies Sun, Jul 5 | COL 54.3% · SF 45.7% | COL 4–SF 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Angels Sun, Jul 5 | LAA 55.1% · BOS 44.9% | LAA 1–BOS 8 | Miss |
| Brewers at Diamondbacks Sun, Jul 5 | ARI 52.5% · MIL 47.5% | ARI 4–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Athletics Sun, Jul 5 | OAK 54.6% · MIA 45.4% | OAK 2–MIA 7 | Miss |
| Padres at Dodgers Sun, Jul 5 | LAD 54.9% · SD 45.1% | LAD 3–SD 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Braves Sun, Jul 5 | ATL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | ATL 9–NYM 10 | Miss |
| Pirates at Nationals Sun, Jul 5 | WSH 56.8% · PIT 43.2% | WSH 5–PIT 11 | Miss |
| Orioles at Reds Sun, Jul 5 | CIN 55.3% · BAL 44.7% | CIN 3–BAL 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Yankees Sun, Jul 5 | NYY 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | NYY 1–MIN 6 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Sun, Jul 5 | CLE 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | CLE 6–CWS 7 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Cubs Sun, Jul 5 | CHC 55.6% · STL 44.4% | CHC 6–STL 4 | Hit |
| Phillies at Royals Sun, Jul 5 | KC 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | KC 5–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Rangers Sun, Jul 5 | TEX 55.8% · DET 44.2% | TEX 3–DET 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Astros Sun, Jul 5 | HOU 54.4% · TB 45.6% | HOU 2–TB 0 | Hit |
| Giants at Rockies Sun, Jul 5 | COL 54.3% · SF 45.7% | COL 7–SF 6 | Hit |
| Brewers at Diamondbacks Sun, Jul 5 | ARI 52.5% · MIL 47.5% | ARI 2–MIL 3 | Miss |
| Marlins at Athletics Sun, Jul 5 | OAK 54.6% · MIA 45.4% | OAK 8–MIA 9 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Mariners Sun, Jul 5 | SEA 53.0% · TOR 46.9% | SEA 4–TOR 0 | Hit |
| Padres at Dodgers Sun, Jul 5 | LAD 54.9% · SD 45.1% | LAD 2–SD 5 | Miss |
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