Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Boston Red Sox 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Red Sox:
- Rest Days. Red Sox rest advantage (2 days rest) over Angels (back-to-back)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: BOS 44% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 56% (+3)
Win probability movement
LAA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Red Sox defeated the Angels 5-2.
Our model predicted the Red Sox would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Red Sox and was a major factor: Red Sox rest advantage (2 days rest) over Angels (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Angels and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Red Sox won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Boston Red Sox
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Los Angeles Angels
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Red Sox rest advantage (2 days rest) over Angels (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Red Sox
Angels
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Angels has a 47% win probability, while Red Sox has a 53% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California.