Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Mariners:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SEA 52% (−1)
Win probability movement
SEA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mariners defeated the Blue Jays 4-0.
Our model predicted the Mariners would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mariners and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating favored the Blue Jays and was a contributing factor: Mariners ELO 1478 vs Blue Jays ELO 1536 (diff: -58)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mariners won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Seattle Mariners
- ELO RatingFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Blue Jays
Mariners
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mariners has a 53% win probability, while Blue Jays has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington.