New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Braves:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ATL 50% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: ATL 56% (+3)
Win probability movement
ATL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Braves defeated the Mets 5-3.
Our model predicted the Braves would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Braves and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Mets and was a contributing factor: Mets rest advantage (2 days rest) over Braves (1 day rest)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Braves won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Braves
- Rest DaysFavors New York Mets
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Braves
Mets
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Mets
Braves
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Braves has a 53% win probability, while Mets has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia.