Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 58% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Nationals:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Nationals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Pirates (1 day rest)
- ELO Rating. Nationals ELO 1576 vs Pirates ELO 1514 (diff: +62)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WSH 54% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: WSH 56% (−2)
Win probability movement
WSH home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nationals defeated the Pirates 9-5.
Our model predicted the Nationals would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Nationals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Nationals and was a contributing factor: Nationals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Pirates (1 day rest)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nationals won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Nationals
- Rest DaysFavors Washington Nationals
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Washington Nationals
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Nationals
Pirates
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pirates
Nationals
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nationals has a 58% win probability, while Pirates has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia.