Week 5
Scheduled
Patriots
New England
61%
Slight Lean
vs
Raiders
Las Vegas
39%
NE vs LVbreakdown →
NFLAFC • East
New England Patriots
AFC Conference • East Division
Record
2-2
Division
East
Conference
AFC
Upcoming
2 games
Next Game Prediction
vs Las Vegas Raiders • Sun, Oct 11 5:00 PM
61%
win probability
Model accuracy on New England Patriots: 50% (2 games)
Team Analytics
Elo Rating History
New England Patriots - 2026 Season
158815741561
Current Elo
1585
Season Change
+22
Season High
1585
Season Low
1563
Avg Change
+6.6
Games
1
Model vs. Market History
New England Patriots - 2026 Season
Avg Edge
0%
Model Edge Record
0-1
Model Edge Win %
0%
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Model | Market | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | Raiders | H | 61% | 64% | -3% | Scheduled |
| Oct 4 | Bills | A | 29% | 41% | -12% | WIN✗ |
| Sep 27 | Jaguars | A | 29% | 15% | +14%★ | LOSS✓ |
Model divergence: our model gives this team >5% more probability than the market implies
Upcoming Games
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Recent Games
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Frequently Asked Questions
The New England Patriots play in the AFC conference, East division.
The Patriots play their home games in New England.
We analyze Patriots games using multiple factors including weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, injury reports, and historical performance to calculate win probabilities.
How We Analyze NFL Games
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Guide
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
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Deep Dive
Home Field Advantage
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Deep Dive
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