New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Patriots:
- ELO Rating. Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -177)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Patriots at Dolphins
The Patriots visit the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL in NFL regular season Week 8 action.
Our model gives the Patriots a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Dolphins will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Patriots (medium): Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -177)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Dolphins (low): Dolphins are 0-2 at home this season; Patriots are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency is neutral: Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
has a slight edge to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors New England Patriots
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Dolphins
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
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Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Patriots
Dolphins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Dolphins has a 46% win probability, while Patriots has a 54% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.