Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots head-to-head
New England Patriots 59% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Patriots:
- Home Field Advantage. Patriots are 3-0 at home this season; Packers are 2-1 on the road
- ELO Rating. Patriots ELO 1585 vs Packers ELO 1529 (diff: +56)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NE 54% (−5)
- If the rating edge were neutral: NE 57% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Packers at Patriots
The Packers visit the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA in NFL regular season Week 9 action.
Our model gives the Patriots a 59% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Packers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Patriots (medium): Patriots are 3-0 at home this season; Packers are 2-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Patriots (low): Patriots ELO 1585 vs Packers ELO 1529 (diff: +56)
- Weather Impact is neutral: Weather data not available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New England Patriots
- ELO RatingFavors New England Patriots
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Packers
Patriots
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers
Other Week 9 games
- 59%JAX win probability
- 53%CIN win probability
- 64%KC win probability
- 62%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Patriots has a 59% win probability, while Packers has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.