New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots head-to-head
Kansas City Chiefs 57% to win. The biggest signal favoring Chiefs:
- Home Field Advantage. Chiefs are 3-0 at home this season; Patriots are 1-3 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: KC 50% (−7)
- If the rating edge were neutral: KC 59% (+2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Patriots at Chiefs
The Patriots visit the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO in NFL regular season Week 15 action.
Our model gives the Chiefs a 57% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Patriots to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Chiefs (high): Chiefs are 3-0 at home this season; Patriots are 1-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Patriots (low): Chiefs ELO 1534 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -51)
- Head to Head is neutral: No recent head-to-head history available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- ELO RatingFavors New England Patriots
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Chiefs are 3-0 at home this season; Patriots are 1-3 on the road
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Patriots
Chiefs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
Other Week 15 games
- 55%SF win probability
- 52%PHI win probability
- 59%BUF win probability
- 55%WSH win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Chiefs has a 57% win probability, while Patriots has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO.