New England Patriots at New York Jets
New England Patriots vs New York Jets head-to-head
New England Patriots 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Patriots:
- ELO Rating. Jets ELO 1403 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -182)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: NE 44% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NE 55% (+4)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Patriots at Jets
The Patriots visit the Jets at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ in NFL regular season Week 16 action.
Our model gives the Patriots a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Jets to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Patriots (medium): Jets ELO 1403 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -182)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Jets (medium): Jets are 1-1 at home this season; Patriots are 1-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency is neutral: Offensive efficiency stats not yet available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors New England Patriots
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Jets
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Patriots
Jets
No player data available
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
New York Jets
- Previous game52%NYJ win probability
- Next game55%MIN win probability
New England Patriots
Other Week 16 games
- 55%PHI win probability
- 55%CHI win probability
- 54%DEN win probability
- 59%SEA win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Jets has a 49% win probability, while Patriots has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.