Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers head-to-head
Chicago Bears 60% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bears:
- Home Field Advantage. Bears are 3-1 at home this season; Buccaneers are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating. Bears ELO 1531 vs Buccaneers ELO 1442 (diff: +88)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHI 55% (−5)
- If the rating edge were neutral: CHI 57% (−3)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Buccaneers at Bears
The Buccaneers visit the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL in NFL regular season Week 9 action.
Our model gives the Bears a 60% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Buccaneers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bears (medium): Bears are 3-1 at home this season; Buccaneers are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Bears (low): Bears ELO 1531 vs Buccaneers ELO 1442 (diff: +88)
- Defensive Efficiency is neutral: Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bears
- ELO RatingFavors Chicago Bears
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Buccaneers
Bears
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Other Week 9 games
- 59%JAX win probability
- 53%CIN win probability
- 64%KC win probability
- 62%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bears has a 60% win probability, while Buccaneers has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL.