New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers head-to-head
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: TB 52% (+1)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TB 51% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Saints at Buccaneers
The Saints visit the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL in NFL regular season Week 15 action.
Our model gives the Buccaneers a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Saints to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating is neutral: Buccaneers ELO 1442 vs Saints ELO 1461 (diff: -18)
- Home Field Advantage is neutral: Buccaneers are 0-4 at home this season; Saints are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Buccaneers turnover differential (+0) vs Saints (+0)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Saints
Buccaneers
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
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How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
Other Week 15 games
- 55%SF win probability
- 52%PHI win probability
- 59%BUF win probability
- 55%WSH win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Buccaneers has a 51% win probability, while Saints has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.