MLB report card: week of 2026-06-22 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
46.9%
hit rate
0.254
Brier score
45 of 96 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Astros at TigersDET 60.3% pre-game — final DET 1–HOU 2
- Phillies at NationalsWSH 57.8% pre-game — final WSH 5–PHI 10
- Phillies at NationalsWSH 57.8% pre-game — final WSH 4–PHI 5
- Phillies at NationalsWSH 57.8% pre-game — final WSH 9–PHI 14
- Mariners at GuardiansCLE 57.7% pre-game — final CLE 1–SEA 3
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Phillies at NationalsWSH 63.6% pre-game — final WSH 4–PHI 1
- Cubs at BrewersMIL 58.2% pre-game — final MIL 6–CHC 2
- Astros at Blue JaysTOR 57.9% pre-game — final TOR 4–HOU 2
- Braves at PadresSD 56.6% pre-game — final SD 5–ATL 2
- Braves at PadresSD 56.6% pre-game — final SD 7–ATL 6
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees at Tigers Mon, Jun 22 | DET 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | DET 5–NYY 3 | Hit |
| Royals at Rays Mon, Jun 22 | TB 55.7% · KC 44.3% | TB 1–KC 2 | Miss |
| Rangers at Marlins Mon, Jun 22 | MIA 54.7% · TEX 45.3% | MIA 3–TEX 4 | Miss |
| Phillies at Nationals Mon, Jun 22 | WSH 63.6% · PHI 36.4% | WSH 4–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Astros at Blue Jays Mon, Jun 22 | TOR 57.9% · HOU 42.1% | TOR 4–HOU 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Reds Mon, Jun 22 | CIN 53.0% · MIL 47.0% | CIN 1–MIL 2 | Miss |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Mon, Jun 22 | CWS 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | CWS 6–CLE 5 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Twins Mon, Jun 22 | MIN 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | MIN 1–LAD 2 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Cardinals Mon, Jun 22 | STL 54.8% · ARI 45.2% | STL 3–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Rockies Tue, Jun 23 | COL 56.0% · BOS 44.0% | COL 3–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Angels Tue, Jun 23 | LAA 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | LAA 1–BAL 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Padres Tue, Jun 23 | SD 56.6% · ATL 43.4% | SD 1–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Astros at Blue Jays Tue, Jun 23 | TOR 56.1% · HOU 43.9% | TOR 7–HOU 9 | Miss |
| Yankees at Tigers Tue, Jun 23 | DET 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | DET 3–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Rangers at Marlins Tue, Jun 23 | MIA 54.7% · TEX 45.3% | MIA 6–TEX 4 | Hit |
| Royals at Rays Tue, Jun 23 | TB 55.7% · KC 44.3% | TB 5–KC 12 | Miss |
| Mariners at Pirates Tue, Jun 23 | PIT 56.0% · SEA 44.0% | PIT 2–SEA 3 | Miss |
| Phillies at Nationals Tue, Jun 23 | WSH 57.8% · PHI 42.2% | WSH 9–PHI 14 | Miss |
| Brewers at Reds Tue, Jun 23 | CIN 53.0% · MIL 47.0% | CIN 0–MIL 2 | Miss |
| Cubs at Mets Tue, Jun 23 | NYM 52.7% · CHC 47.3% | NYM 6–CHC 9 | Miss |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Tue, Jun 23 | CWS 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | CWS 2–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Twins Tue, Jun 23 | MIN 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | MIN 3–LAD 12 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Cardinals Tue, Jun 23 | STL 54.8% · ARI 45.2% | STL 3–ARI 4 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Rockies Wed, Jun 24 | COL 56.0% · BOS 44.0% | COL 2–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Angels Wed, Jun 24 | LAA 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | LAA 5–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Padres Wed, Jun 24 | SD 56.6% · ATL 43.4% | SD 7–ATL 6 | Hit |
| Athletics at Giants Wed, Jun 24 | SF 55.8% · OAK 44.2% | SF 3–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Marlins Wed, Jun 24 | MIA 54.7% · TEX 45.3% | MIA 4–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Mets Wed, Jun 24 | NYM 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | NYM 3–CHC 10 | Miss |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Wed, Jun 24 | CWS 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | CWS 3–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Rockies Wed, Jun 24 | COL 56.0% · BOS 44.0% | COL 8–BOS 6 | Hit |
| Orioles at Angels Wed, Jun 24 | LAA 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | LAA 7–BAL 6 | Hit |
| Royals at Rays Wed, Jun 24 | TB 55.7% · KC 44.3% | TB 5–KC 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Tigers Wed, Jun 24 | DET 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | DET 2–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Pirates Wed, Jun 24 | PIT 56.0% · SEA 44.0% | PIT 11–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Nationals Wed, Jun 24 | WSH 57.8% · PHI 42.2% | WSH 4–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Blue Jays Wed, Jun 24 | TOR 56.1% · HOU 43.9% | TOR 1–HOU 3 | Miss |
| Cubs at Mets Wed, Jun 24 | NYM 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | NYM 5–CHC 10 | Miss |
| Brewers at Reds Wed, Jun 24 | CIN 53.0% · MIL 47.0% | CIN 5–MIL 6 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Twins Wed, Jun 24 | MIN 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | MIN 3–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Cardinals Wed, Jun 24 | STL 54.8% · ARI 45.2% | STL 4–ARI 9 | Miss |
| Braves at Padres Thu, Jun 25 | SD 56.6% · ATL 43.4% | SD 5–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Athletics at Giants Thu, Jun 25 | SF 55.8% · OAK 44.2% | SF 2–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Rays Thu, Jun 25 | TB 55.7% · KC 44.3% | TB 13–KC 2 | Hit |
| Mariners at Pirates Thu, Jun 25 | PIT 56.0% · SEA 44.0% | PIT 5–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Giants Thu, Jun 25 | SF 55.8% · OAK 44.2% | SF 6–OAK 9 | Miss |
| Astros at Tigers Thu, Jun 25 | DET 60.3% · HOU 39.7% | DET 1–HOU 2 | Miss |
| Phillies at Nationals Thu, Jun 25 | WSH 57.8% · PHI 42.2% | WSH 5–PHI 10 | Miss |
| Rangers at Blue Jays Thu, Jun 25 | TOR 55.8% · TEX 44.2% | TOR 5–TEX 6 | Miss |
| Cubs at Mets Thu, Jun 25 | NYM 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | NYM 3–CHC 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Red Sox Thu, Jun 25 | BOS 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | BOS 6–NYY 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Pirates Fri, Jun 26 | PIT 55.6% · CIN 44.4% | PIT 4–CIN 6 | Miss |
| Astros at Tigers Fri, Jun 26 | DET 54.3% · HOU 45.7% | DET 8–HOU 0 | Hit |
| Nationals at Orioles Fri, Jun 26 | BAL 53.5% · WSH 46.5% | BAL 3–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Blue Jays Fri, Jun 26 | TOR 55.8% · TEX 44.2% | TOR 4–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Yankees at Red Sox Fri, Jun 26 | BOS 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | BOS 6–NYY 1 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Rays Fri, Jun 26 | TB 56.0% · ARI 44.0% | TB 6–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Mets Fri, Jun 26 | NYM 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | NYM 1–PHI 2 | Miss |
| Mariners at Guardians Fri, Jun 26 | CLE 57.7% · SEA 42.3% | CLE 1–SEA 3 | Miss |
| Royals at Chicago White Sox Fri, Jun 26 | CWS 56.6% · KC 43.4% | CWS 22–KC 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Brewers Fri, Jun 26 | MIL 58.2% · CHC 41.8% | MIL 6–CHC 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Twins Sat, Jun 27 | MIN 54.8% · COL 45.2% | MIN 9–COL 8 | Hit |
| Marlins at Cardinals Sat, Jun 27 | STL 54.0% · MIA 46.0% | STL 0–MIA 4 | Miss |
| Athletics at Angels Sat, Jun 27 | LAA 56.1% · OAK 43.9% | LAA 3–OAK 9 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Padres Sat, Jun 27 | SD 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | SD 7–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Giants Sat, Jun 27 | SF 53.9% · ATL 46.1% | SF 1–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Yankees at Red Sox Sat, Jun 27 | BOS 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | BOS 4–NYY 1 | Hit |
| Astros at Tigers Sat, Jun 27 | DET 54.3% · HOU 45.7% | DET 6–HOU 8 | Miss |
| Rangers at Blue Jays Sat, Jun 27 | TOR 55.8% · TEX 44.2% | TOR 4–TEX 7 | Miss |
| Phillies at Mets Sat, Jun 27 | NYM 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | NYM 6–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Chicago White Sox Sat, Jun 27 | CWS 54.9% · KC 45.1% | CWS 2–KC 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Pirates Sat, Jun 27 | PIT 55.6% · CIN 44.4% | PIT 7–CIN 9 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Rays Sat, Jun 27 | TB 56.0% · ARI 44.0% | TB 4–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Orioles Sat, Jun 27 | BAL 51.7% · WSH 48.3% | BAL 3–WSH 4 | Miss |
| Cubs at Brewers Sat, Jun 27 | MIL 56.5% · CHC 43.5% | MIL 2–CHC 8 | Miss |
| Rockies at Twins Sat, Jun 27 | MIN 54.8% · COL 45.2% | MIN 5–COL 8 | Miss |
| Mariners at Guardians Sat, Jun 27 | CLE 56.0% · SEA 44.0% | CLE 4–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Cardinals Sat, Jun 27 | STL 54.0% · MIA 46.0% | STL 1–MIA 5 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Padres Sun, Jun 28 | SD 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | SD 3–LAD 15 | Miss |
| Braves at Giants Sun, Jun 28 | SF 55.7% · ATL 44.3% | SF 5–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Athletics at Angels Sun, Jun 28 | LAA 54.3% · OAK 45.7% | LAA 5–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Orioles Sun, Jun 28 | BAL 51.7% · WSH 48.3% | BAL 4–WSH 6 | Miss |
| Reds at Pirates Sun, Jun 28 | PIT 55.6% · CIN 44.4% | PIT 9–CIN 4 | Hit |
| Rangers at Blue Jays Sun, Jun 28 | TOR 55.8% · TEX 44.2% | TOR 2–TEX 3 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Rays Sun, Jun 28 | TB 56.0% · ARI 44.0% | TB 5–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Mets Sun, Jun 28 | NYM 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | NYM 4–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Tigers Sun, Jun 28 | DET 54.3% · HOU 45.7% | DET 5–HOU 7 | Miss |
| Mariners at Guardians Sun, Jun 28 | CLE 56.0% · SEA 44.0% | CLE 6–SEA 5 | Hit |
| Rockies at Twins Sun, Jun 28 | MIN 54.8% · COL 45.2% | MIN 3–COL 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Brewers Sun, Jun 28 | MIL 56.5% · CHC 43.5% | MIL 3–CHC 4 | Miss |
| Royals at Chicago White Sox Sun, Jun 28 | CWS 54.9% · KC 45.1% | CWS 4–KC 5 | Miss |
| Marlins at Cardinals Sun, Jun 28 | STL 54.0% · MIA 46.0% | STL 2–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Angels Sun, Jun 28 | LAA 54.3% · OAK 45.7% | LAA 4–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Giants Sun, Jun 28 | SF 55.7% · ATL 44.3% | SF 3–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Padres Sun, Jun 28 | SD 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | SD 2–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Red Sox Sun, Jun 28 | BOS 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | BOS 5–NYY 4 | Hit |
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