Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays head-to-head
Toronto Blue Jays 58% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Blue Jays:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Blue Jays rest advantage (2 days rest) over Astros (1 day rest)
- ELO Rating. Blue Jays ELO 1536 vs Astros ELO 1495 (diff: +41)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 54% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: TOR 56% (−2)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Blue Jays defeated the Astros 4-2.
Our model predicted the Blue Jays would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Blue Jays and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Blue Jays and was a contributing factor: Blue Jays rest advantage (2 days rest) over Astros (1 day rest)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Blue Jays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Rest DaysFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Astros
Blue Jays
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Toronto Blue Jays
- Previous game54%CHC win probability
- Next game56%TOR win probability
Houston Astros
- Previous game54%HOU win probability
- Next game56%TOR win probability
Other games on Jun 22, 2026
- 55%DET win probability
- 56%TB win probability
- 55%MIA win probability
- 64%WSH win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Blue Jays has a 58% win probability, while Astros has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario.