Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pirates:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Pirates ELO 1514 vs Reds ELO 1490 (diff: +24)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PIT 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
PIT home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pirates defeated the Reds 9-4.
Our model predicted the Pirates would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pirates and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating favored the Pirates and was a contributing factor: Pirates ELO 1514 vs Reds ELO 1490 (diff: +24)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pirates won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- ELO RatingFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Reds
Pirates
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pirates has a 56% win probability, while Reds has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.