MLB report card: week of 2026-06-01 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
51.6%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
47 of 91 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Marlins at NationalsWSH 57.2% pre-game — final WSH 1–MIA 4
- Marlins at NationalsWSH 57.2% pre-game — final WSH 3–MIA 7
- Marlins at NationalsWSH 57.2% pre-game — final WSH 3–MIA 7
- Tigers at RaysTB 55.9% pre-game — final TB 2–DET 7
- Tigers at RaysTB 55.9% pre-game — final TB 0–DET 8
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Pirates at BravesATL 60.3% pre-game — final ATL 6–PIT 3
- Orioles at Blue JaysTOR 56.7% pre-game — final TOR 6–BAL 4
- Orioles at Blue JaysTOR 56.7% pre-game — final TOR 6–BAL 4
- Guardians at RangersTEX 56.4% pre-game — final TEX 3–CLE 2
- Giants at BrewersMIL 55.7% pre-game — final MIL 8–SF 3
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers at Rays Mon, Jun 1 | TB 55.9% · DET 44.1% | TB 9–DET 10 | Miss |
| Marlins at Nationals Mon, Jun 1 | WSH 57.2% · MIA 42.8% | WSH 3–MIA 7 | Miss |
| Royals at Reds Mon, Jun 1 | CIN 55.1% · KC 44.9% | CIN 2–KC 9 | Miss |
| Giants at Brewers Mon, Jun 1 | MIL 55.7% · SF 44.3% | MIL 16–SF 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Twins Mon, Jun 1 | MIN 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | MIN 9–CWS 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Cardinals Mon, Jun 1 | STL 53.8% · TEX 46.2% | STL 1–TEX 2 | Miss |
| Rockies at Angels Tue, Jun 2 | LAA 53.9% · COL 46.1% | LAA 8–COL 9 | Miss |
| Mets at Mariners Tue, Jun 2 | SEA 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | SEA 3–NYM 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Diamondbacks Tue, Jun 2 | ARI 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | ARI 4–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Padres at Phillies Tue, Jun 2 | PHI 52.6% · SD 47.4% | PHI 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Rays Tue, Jun 2 | TB 55.9% · DET 44.1% | TB 0–DET 8 | Miss |
| Orioles at Red Sox Tue, Jun 2 | BOS 54.6% · BAL 45.4% | BOS 2–BAL 4 | Miss |
| Marlins at Nationals Tue, Jun 2 | WSH 57.2% · MIA 42.8% | WSH 3–MIA 7 | Miss |
| Guardians at Yankees Tue, Jun 2 | NYY 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | NYY 4–CLE 9 | Miss |
| Royals at Reds Tue, Jun 2 | CIN 55.1% · KC 44.9% | CIN 4–KC 3 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Braves Tue, Jun 2 | ATL 53.6% · TOR 46.4% | ATL 4–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Twins Tue, Jun 2 | MIN 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | MIN 6–CWS 4 | Hit |
| Giants at Brewers Tue, Jun 2 | MIL 55.7% · SF 44.3% | MIL 8–SF 3 | Hit |
| Rangers at Cardinals Tue, Jun 2 | STL 53.8% · TEX 46.2% | STL 4–TEX 7 | Miss |
| Athletics at Cubs Wed, Jun 3 | CHC 55.0% · OAK 45.0% | CHC 1–OAK 2 | Miss |
| Pirates at Astros Wed, Jun 3 | HOU 54.3% · PIT 45.7% | HOU 6–PIT 10 | Miss |
| Rockies at Angels Wed, Jun 3 | LAA 53.9% · COL 46.1% | LAA 2–COL 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Mariners Wed, Jun 3 | SEA 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | SEA 8–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Diamondbacks Wed, Jun 3 | ARI 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | ARI 5–LAD 6 | Miss |
| Marlins at Nationals Wed, Jun 3 | WSH 57.2% · MIA 42.8% | WSH 1–MIA 4 | Miss |
| Tigers at Rays Wed, Jun 3 | TB 55.9% · DET 44.1% | TB 2–DET 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Twins Wed, Jun 3 | MIN 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | MIN 0–CWS 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Mariners Wed, Jun 3 | SEA 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | SEA 1–NYM 7 | Miss |
| Padres at Phillies Wed, Jun 3 | PHI 52.6% · SD 47.4% | PHI 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Red Sox Wed, Jun 3 | BOS 54.6% · BAL 45.4% | BOS 8–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Guardians at Yankees Wed, Jun 3 | NYY 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | NYY 4–CLE 5 | Miss |
| Royals at Reds Wed, Jun 3 | CIN 55.1% · KC 44.9% | CIN 2–KC 5 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Braves Wed, Jun 3 | ATL 53.6% · TOR 46.4% | ATL 7–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Brewers Wed, Jun 3 | MIL 55.7% · SF 44.3% | MIL 0–SF 1 | Miss |
| Rangers at Cardinals Wed, Jun 3 | STL 53.8% · TEX 46.2% | STL 5–TEX 3 | Hit |
| Athletics at Cubs Thu, Jun 4 | CHC 55.0% · OAK 45.0% | CHC 4–OAK 5 | Miss |
| Pirates at Astros Thu, Jun 4 | HOU 54.3% · PIT 45.7% | HOU 11–PIT 9 | Hit |
| Rockies at Angels Thu, Jun 4 | LAA 53.9% · COL 46.1% | LAA 11–COL 4 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Diamondbacks Thu, Jun 4 | ARI 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | ARI 0–LAD 7 | Miss |
| Padres at Phillies Thu, Jun 4 | PHI 52.6% · SD 47.4% | PHI 6–SD 4 | Hit |
| Guardians at Yankees Thu, Jun 4 | NYY 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | NYY 2–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Red Sox Thu, Jun 4 | BOS 54.6% · BAL 45.4% | BOS 2–BAL 8 | Miss |
| Giants at Brewers Thu, Jun 4 | MIL 55.7% · SF 44.3% | MIL 9–SF 12 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Braves Thu, Jun 4 | ATL 53.6% · TOR 46.4% | ATL 2–TOR 7 | Miss |
| Royals at Twins Thu, Jun 4 | MIN 55.4% · KC 44.6% | MIN 6–KC 8 | Miss |
| Athletics at Cubs Fri, Jun 5 | CHC 55.0% · OAK 45.0% | CHC 7–OAK 6 | Hit |
| Pirates at Astros Fri, Jun 5 | HOU 54.3% · PIT 45.7% | HOU 1–PIT 5 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Diamondbacks Fri, Jun 5 | ARI 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | ARI 3–LAD 2 | Hit |
| Giants at Cubs Fri, Jun 5 | CHC 47.9% · SF 52.1% | CHC 3–SF 18 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Phillies Fri, Jun 5 | PHI 53.1% · CWS 46.9% | PHI 8–CWS 6 | Hit |
| Mariners at Tigers Fri, Jun 5 | DET 54.8% · SEA 45.2% | DET 7–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Yankees Fri, Jun 5 | NYY 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | NYY 3–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Blue Jays Fri, Jun 5 | TOR 50.6% · BAL 49.4% | TOR 3–BAL 13 | Miss |
| Rays at Marlins Fri, Jun 5 | MIA 54.5% · TB 45.5% | MIA 0–TB 6 | Miss |
| Pirates at Braves Fri, Jun 5 | ATL 60.3% · PIT 39.7% | ATL 6–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Athletics at Astros Sat, Jun 6 | HOU 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | HOU 5–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Twins Sat, Jun 6 | MIN 55.4% · KC 44.6% | MIN 5–KC 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Cardinals Sat, Jun 6 | STL 54.3% · CIN 45.7% | STL 10–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Guardians at Rangers Sat, Jun 6 | TEX 56.4% · CLE 43.6% | TEX 3–CLE 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Rockies Sat, Jun 6 | COL 53.5% · MIL 46.5% | COL 7–MIL 9 | Miss |
| Nationals at Diamondbacks Sat, Jun 6 | ARI 49.9% · WSH 50.1% | ARI 1–WSH 14 | Hit |
| Mets at Padres Sat, Jun 6 | SD 53.1% · NYM 46.9% | SD 0–NYM 5 | Miss |
| Angels at Dodgers Sat, Jun 6 | LAD 53.1% · LAA 46.9% | LAD 1–LAA 0 | Hit |
| Mariners at Tigers Sat, Jun 6 | DET 54.8% · SEA 45.2% | DET 0–SEA 4 | Miss |
| Royals at Twins Sat, Jun 6 | MIN 55.4% · KC 44.6% | MIN 2–KC 3 | Miss |
| Reds at Cardinals Sat, Jun 6 | STL 54.3% · CIN 45.7% | STL 6–CIN 5 | Hit |
| Giants at Cubs Sat, Jun 6 | CHC 54.0% · SF 46.0% | CHC 3–SF 2 | Hit |
| Orioles at Blue Jays Sat, Jun 6 | TOR 56.7% · BAL 43.3% | TOR 6–BAL 4 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Phillies Sat, Jun 6 | PHI 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | PHI 3–CWS 6 | Miss |
| Pirates at Braves Sat, Jun 6 | ATL 54.3% · PIT 45.7% | ATL 6–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Rays at Marlins Sat, Jun 6 | MIA 54.5% · TB 45.5% | MIA 4–TB 3 | Hit |
| Athletics at Astros Sat, Jun 6 | HOU 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | HOU 13–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Diamondbacks Sat, Jun 6 | ARI 51.7% · WSH 48.3% | ARI 1–WSH 6 | Miss |
| Guardians at Rangers Sat, Jun 6 | TEX 54.6% · CLE 45.4% | TEX 0–CLE 6 | Miss |
| Brewers at Rockies Sun, Jun 7 | COL 53.5% · MIL 46.5% | COL 1–MIL 7 | Miss |
| Mets at Padres Sun, Jun 7 | SD 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | SD 3–NYM 2 | Hit |
| Angels at Dodgers Sun, Jun 7 | LAD 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | LAD 9–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Phillies Sun, Jun 7 | PHI 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | PHI 9–CWS 5 | Hit |
| Pirates at Braves Sun, Jun 7 | ATL 54.3% · PIT 45.7% | ATL 3–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Yankees Sun, Jun 7 | NYY 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | NYY 6–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Blue Jays Sun, Jun 7 | TOR 56.7% · BAL 43.3% | TOR 6–BAL 4 | Hit |
| Mariners at Tigers Sun, Jun 7 | DET 54.8% · SEA 45.2% | DET 5–SEA 4 | Hit |
| Rays at Marlins Sun, Jun 7 | MIA 54.5% · TB 45.5% | MIA 4–TB 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Twins Sun, Jun 7 | MIN 55.4% · KC 44.6% | MIN 5–KC 6 | Miss |
| Athletics at Astros Sun, Jun 7 | HOU 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | HOU 0–OAK 5 | Miss |
| Reds at Cardinals Sun, Jun 7 | STL 54.3% · CIN 45.7% | STL 5–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Guardians at Rangers Sun, Jun 7 | TEX 54.6% · CLE 45.4% | TEX 10–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Brewers at Rockies Sun, Jun 7 | COL 53.5% · MIL 46.5% | COL 4–MIL 12 | Miss |
| Nationals at Diamondbacks Sun, Jun 7 | ARI 51.7% · WSH 48.3% | ARI 5–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Mets at Padres Sun, Jun 7 | SD 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | SD 3–NYM 7 | Miss |
| Angels at Dodgers Sun, Jun 7 | LAD 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | LAD 5–LAA 13 | Miss |
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