San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
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Padres at Phillies
The Padres visit the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania in 2026-2027 MLB regular play.
Our model gives the Phillies a 53% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Padres will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Phillies (medium): Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating favors the Padres (low): Phillies ELO 1481 vs Padres ELO 1553 (diff: -72)
- Head to Head is neutral: No recent head-to-head history available
has a slight edge to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- ELO RatingFavors San Diego Padres
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Phillies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Phillies has a 53% win probability, while Padres has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.