Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 60% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Braves:
- Rest Days. Braves rest advantage (1 day rest) over Pirates (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: ATL 56% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ATL 58% (−2)
Win probability movement
ATL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Braves defeated the Pirates 6-3.
Our model predicted the Braves would win with 60% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Braves and was a major factor: Braves rest advantage (1 day rest) over Pirates (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Braves and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Braves won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Atlanta Braves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Braves
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Braves rest advantage (1 day rest) over Pirates (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pirates
Braves
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Braves has a 60% win probability, while Pirates has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia.