Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Cardinals:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: STL 52% (−2)
Win probability movement
STL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cardinals defeated the Reds 6-5.
Our model predicted the Cardinals would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cardinals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Cardinals (0 out) vs Reds (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cardinals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Reds
Cardinals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cardinals has a 54% win probability, while Reds has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri.