Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Reds:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CIN 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
CIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Reds defeated the Royals 4-3.
Our model predicted the Reds would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Reds and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Reds won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cincinnati Reds
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Reds
Royals
Odds by Source
| Source | Reds | Royals | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -160 | +132 | -1.5 | 8.5 |
| FanDuel | -148 | +116 | -1.5 | 7.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Royals
Reds
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Reds has a 55% win probability, while Royals has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.