Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals head-to-head
Arizona Diamondbacks 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Diamondbacks:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ARI 52% (0)
Win probability movement
ARI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Diamondbacks defeated the Nationals 5-1.
Our model predicted the Diamondbacks would win with 52% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Diamondbacks and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Diamondbacks (0 out) vs Nationals (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Diamondbacks won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Washington Nationals
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Nationals
No player data available
Diamondbacks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Previous game52%ARI win probability
- Next game56%MIA win probability
Washington Nationals
- Previous game52%ARI win probability
- Next game53%SF win probability
Other games on Jun 7, 2026
- 54%COL win probability
- 55%SD win probability
- 55%LAD win probability
- 55%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Diamondbacks has a 52% win probability, while Nationals has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.