NFL weekly recap: 2026 week 5
Hit rate this week: 64% across 14 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 66% — final LAR 34–BUF 37
- Injuries (favors LAR)
- ELO Rating (favors BUF)
- Home Field Advantage
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Cowboys Fri, Oct 9 | DAL 58% • TB 42% | DAL 16–TB 24 | Miss |
| Eagles at Jaguars Sun, Oct 11 | JAX 59% • PHI 41% | JAX 19–PHI 17 | Hit |
| Texans at Titans Sun, Oct 11 | TEN 51% • HOU 49% | TEN 3–HOU 26 | Miss |
| Bengals at Dolphins Sun, Oct 11 | MIA 44% • CIN 56% | MIA 24–CIN 31 | Hit |
| Raiders at Patriots Sun, Oct 11 | NE 59% • LV 41% | NE 45–LV 17 | Hit |
| Vikings at Saints Sun, Oct 11 | NO 49% • MIN 51% | NO 13–MIN 23 | Hit |
| Bears at Packers Sun, Oct 11 | GB 58% • CHI 42% | GB 31–CHI 7 | Hit |
| Colts at Steelers Sun, Oct 11 | PIT 49% • IND 51% | PIT 34–IND 22 | Miss |
| Browns at Jets Sun, Oct 11 | NYJ 66% • CLE 34% | NYJ 17–CLE 12 | Hit |
| Broncos at Chargers Sun, Oct 11 | LAC 46% • DEN 54% | LAC 17–DEN 23 | Hit |
| 49ers at Seahawks Sun, Oct 11 | SEA 51% • SF 49% | SEA 29–SF 32 | Miss |
| Lions at Cardinals Sun, Oct 11 | ARI 49% • DET 51% | ARI 21–DET 45 | Hit |
| Ravens at Falcons Mon, Oct 12 | ATL 39% • BAL 61% | ATL 23–BAL 30 | Hit |
| Bills at Rams Tue, Oct 13 | LAR 66% • BUF 34% | LAR 34–BUF 37 | Miss |